The Sunni Backlash

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After holding their fire during the national elections, Iraqi insurgents unleashed a volley of car bombings, shootings and kidnappings across the country last week, leaving U.S. officials with the distinct impression that Sunni political leaders can turn the violence on and off at will. Abu Abdullah al-Anbari, a field commander of insurgents, told TIME that he had been given orders by unnamed superiors not to attack Iraqis during the four days surrounding the Dec. 15 balloting to allow the vote to go forward. The goal, he said, was to get Sunnis to the polls in order to "create a balance between political powers." But after seeing the preliminary results--by most accounts, a strong showing for the Shi'ite religious parties--his view has changed. Now he sees the election, which Sunnis have claimed was marred by widespread fraud and should be rerun, as "a trap." Al-Anbari says his group's attacks will continue, and he is helping to bring together different insurgent groups on a provincial level.

As local election monitors and a newly deployed international commission finish certifying election results, it's becoming clear that the biggest losers are Iraq's moderates. "There is almost no one in the middle," says an Iraqi official, citing how the seats seem to be going to sectarian extremists on both sides. Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's secular Shi'ite party hasn't so far got the number it was expecting. And according to the preliminary results, the secular list of Shi'ite Ahmad Chalabi, one of Washington's favorite lobbyists for the war to overthrow Saddam, didn't get enough votes for one seat. So even as Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders are meeting to discuss forming a broadly representative government, the lack of a significant moderate voting bloc means there will probably be less will to make deals and compromise. Says the Iraqi official: "What is the next step? It is confrontation."