Israel's Quiet Crisis

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Already Likudniks are saying disengagement in Gaza has caused the chaos and will weaken Israel's security. "We hear reports of an al-Qaeda presence in Gaza now and about high-powered explosives being smuggled in through Egypt," a leading Likud security expert told me. "The question is, How would Sharon have reacted to the deteriorating situation? Would he have moved on and disengaged from the West Bank? I think there is a discussion to be had about what Sharon's real legacy should be."

Olmert will have some disadvantages in that discussion. He served in the army, but not prominently. He has never held a major security portfolio. He will be under pressure to reveal Kadima's plans for disengagement on the West Bank. "But he's not going to put out a map during an election campaign," a member of Olmert's Cabinet told me. "That would be crazy, given the uncertainty on the other side." Indeed, Avi Dichter--who will probably be a leading security spokesman for Kadima--sounded very much like a Likudnik when discussing future plans. "Israel is not going to try any experiments in the West Bank to let it become another Gaza," he said. "If the Palestinian Authority doesn't build an adequate counterterrorist capability, we are going to stay in the West Bank for a long time."

There is another, more personal challenge facing Olmert. He and Netanyahu, along with Dan Meridor and Benjamin Begin, were once called the four princes of Likud--and of them, Olmert was regarded as the least likely to succeed, a smart inside operator but a politician, not a statesman. He will have to perform in the spotlight now, and inside players tend to wilt when shoved onto center stage. Netanyahu has become Israel's Richard Nixon--his negatives are stratospheric, but he is a tough competitor, a plausible Prime Minister. Olmert will have another opponent as well: the memory of Ariel Sharon. Olmert won a quiet battle last week, establishing post-Sharon Kadima as a major force in Israeli politics. But Olmert still must prove that he can make his voice heard when all the usual dogs start howling again.