Can Militants Make Peace?

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And the earthquake shook Israelis just as hard as it did Palestinians. Coming so soon after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon slipped into a coma and in the middle of Israel's own election campaign, the Hamas victory "has people sweating," a senior Israeli security official told TIME. "We had a plan for every eventuality in the Middle East except for this one." Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would not negotiate with a Palestinian government "if even part of it is an armed terrorist organization calling for Israel's destruction." The leader of the right-wing Likud Party, Benjamin Netanyahu, who trails Olmert in the polls before Israel's elections in late March and describes the Gaza Strip and West Bank as "Hamastan," called for economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority.

Virtually no one foresaw Hamas' surge. Pre-election polls generally gave Hamas, which was founded in 1987 as an offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, about a third of the vote. But when election day dawned, voters leaped at the chance to rid themselves of the incompetent and corrupt Fatah. "It's not that we love Hamas, but we didn't want Fatah anymore," says Samer Bafrawi, 26, a West Bank restaurateur. "It's a bad organization"--bad enough that he voted for the Islamists even though he says he is "not really religious at all." It was Hamas' commitment to welfare and social services that ultimately proved appealing. "We like Hamas' thinking that all Palestinians should be the same and not with a few people driving big cars and living in huge houses. This is what we voted for." Hamas also benefited from a slick and professional campaign. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas officials went from house to house explaining the party's policies. By contrast, "Fatah leaders were busy holding rallies with luxury cars," says Zakarya Ba'aloush, a disgruntled former Fatah security official.

But is Hamas ready to rule? Under the strong-arm regime of Yasser Arafat, the Fatah-dominated parliament was mostly a rubber stamp. A Hamas-controlled legislature is likely to wield much more power, severely restricting Abbas' ability to make decisions independently. That may lead to battles over the control of state agencies.

Despite the scale of the victory, Hamas quickly approached Fatah with the idea of forming a coalition. Hamas insiders say they were drawn to the notion because joining forces would allow Hamas to concentrate on social concerns like education and health care while leaving to Fatah delicate issues like dealing with Israel. But the defeated Fatah concluded that it would rather be the opposition than a junior partner in a unity government--a decision that leaves Hamas to go it alone. "Hamas always expected to be part of a coalition," says political scientist Abu Amr. "But they're on their own, and that makes the hurdles they face even greater."