Can Militants Make Peace?

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Not that dealing with domestic issues will be easy. To deliver on its promise to improve security, Hamas will have to rein in the myriad paramilitary groups that Fatah and Arafat set up. Confrontations seem inevitable. "The problem is not in carrying arms but in misusing them," says the Hamas military commander. "We will use an iron fist against those who misuse their weapons." The situation is even more volatile because Fatah members blame Abbas for the party's poor election showing. Thousands of angry Fatah supporters demonstrated late last week to call for his resignation, and Fatah gunmen stormed the Palestinian parliament. Isolated and weak, the President could probably do little to stop internecine violence if it broke out. "He's trying to pretend he can walk on water," says an aide to Abbas. "But he has problems everywhere he looks."

The thorniest problem may be Hamas' legacy as a terrorist organization. Israeli officials estimate that Hamas has been responsible for scores of suicide bombings that have killed hundreds of people. That complicates how Israel and the West may interact with a new Palestinian government. Under the Oslo accords, Israel has sent regular payments to the Palestinian Authority for the taxes and customs it collects on Palestinian goods. That money, as much as $50 million a month, helps pay Palestinian teachers, nurses and other government workers. But under Israeli law, it's illegal to give money to a terrorist organization. Once the Hamas-led government is sworn in, Israel is likely to stop the payments "or come up with some way of not dealing directly with them," according to the Israeli security official. "We need time to come up with some guidelines."

The U.S., similarly, could face legal problems if it continues to give money to the Palestinian Authority. U.S. laws bar giving aid to supporters of terrorism. Even if Hamas were to renounce terrorism, it could take months, if not years, to meet the laws' requirements that it show it has truly changed its ways. In the short term, the flow of U.S. humanitarian aid to Palestinians will probably be disrupted. "We're going to have to review all aspects of our aid program," says Sean McCormack, spokesman for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

If the U.S. does come up with a way to keep the money flowing, it may try to use that to force Hamas to adapt. "If Hamas wants to be in a position to govern, it is going to have to depend on the outside world," says former U.S. Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross. "They're going to try to fuzz the issue and say, 'We'll just deal with internal needs and let Abu Mazen and others deal with Israel and the international bodies,'" says Ross. "But Hamas is going to have to make some choices. They're going to be faced with some dilemmas, and I don't think anybody should make it easier for them."

Hamas and Israel are sure to watch each other with a mixture of curiosity and fear in the coming weeks. Is it possible they could spot an issue to work on together and open an avenue toward peace? "Israel says it won't negotiate with us, but it negotiated with the P.L.O.," says the Hamas military commander hopefully. Says an Israeli military intelligence officer: "Fatah was incompetent. They had their chance, and they failed. Now Hamas has responsibilities, and it has to show it deserves them." After the earthquake, the future of Middle East peace depends on it.