Place Your Bets

It's a game that lures millions of sporting souls into the office pools, to figure out the preferences of the 6,500 Motion Picture Academy members. Yet of all the pop-cultural horse races, from the Super Bowl to American Idol, the Oscars are the one we know the least about. Only the winner is announced, not the runner-up or the margin of victory. It's as if all you knew about the 2000 election was, "And the Presidency goes to ... George W. Bush!"

All that withholding creates its own all-or-nothing melodrama. That applies again this year, when some pretty intriguing head-to-head races are shaping up. Can Crash, the quintessential L.A. indie drama, make a stretch run to overtake the early favorite, Brokeback Mountain? Can Hollywood's most dapper leading man, George Clooney, beat out schlumpy but likable Paul Giamatti? Is dark horse Felicity Huffman the one to knock off everyone's darling, Reese Witherspoon? Will anyone catch Philip Seymour Hoffman?

Actors and directors will tell you there's little point in comparing good work in wildly different roles and genres. But most of them profess to enjoy the five-week ride between nominations and Oscar night. Amy Adams, a Supporting Actress contender, says the whirl has been "fast and furious but fun. The three f's."

Fun for her, yes. For those of us watching, this year's Oscar crop is a quiet bunch: very serious and not terribly popular. The absence of a pure audience smash is an X factor that adds to the mystery, the thrill of the gamble. And if you haven't seen all the films, don't worry. We have, and to help guide you through the awards, we're handicapping the races. How did we make our picks? From conversations with Academy insiders and nominees, from our experience of Oscars past and, well, from tea leaves. But use these picks for your Oscar pool at your own risk. Remember, it's not string theory; it's just a game anyone can play.

BEST ACTRESS

REESE WITHERSPOON Walk the Line

WHY SHE GOT THIS FAR: Pert, practical Southern girl plays pert, practical Southern girl and against her better judgment warbles June Carter Cash's songs in her own quite-adequate voice. And, incidentally, she rescues Johnny Cash from his demons without becoming a harpy or an implausibly redemptive angel. It's hard to think of a more winning or comfortably graceful performance last year.

WHY SHE MIGHT NOT WIN: Walk the Line is an agreeable film but also a rather plodding one, fully energized only when Witherspoon is onscreen. Probably that is to her advantage, but the Academy might prefer something darker and meatier and a little nuttier.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: Why stop now? Witherspoon has won just about every acting award on offer this time of the year, and her vehicle is, at least, a mainstream studio film, and those are in very short supply on the Academy's list of nominees. Nobody is saying the word lock yet, but she is the front runner.

WHAT WITHERSPOON IS SAYING: As a teenager at a drama camp, she was told by a teacher that she might someday be a good actress but that she should never, ever try to sing in public. She has said that overcoming that "embedded" fear "was a really big accomplishment for me." And it is one that audiences somehow sense and share.

FELICITY HUFFMAN Transamerica