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WHY HE GOT THIS FAR: He's one of three nominees to play a celebrity from the 1950s (the others: Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash in Walk the Line and David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow in Good Night, and Good Luck), but Hoffman dominates his film with an eerie force of personality as surely as Truman Capote commandeered Kansas when he was there researching his seminal book. Hoffman begins by impersonating the writer--nailing his droll, spectacular effeminacy--then infiltrates and inhabits him.

WHY HE MIGHT NOT WIN: An asteroid might destroy Planet Earth.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: Capote has won him nearly every award worth taking. He is also commonly described as the leading character actor of his generation but until now was never nominated for an Oscar. That will be not just a reward for a superb performance but also a career-achievement citation.

WHAT HOFFMAN IS SAYING: "You never know what's going to happen on that night. I think we're all going to be sitting there with our heart in our hands." (He acknowledges, though, that he's not exactly rooting for Ledger.) Having spent most of the past couple of months accepting honors for Capote, Hoffman is getting used to the acclaim. "Awards season, I'm finding out, is a long season." It's about to get longer.

DRUMROLL PLEASE

Who Will Win: Hoffman Who Should Win: Ledger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR AND ACTRESS

PAUL GIAMATTI Cinderella Man

WHY HE GOT THIS FAR: Because Oscar totally overlooked his performance in last year's Sideways. The Academy has a long history of making good on its mistakes by giving a performer a prize for a later, often lesser, work. But there's nothing lesser about Giamatti's shrewd, loyal boxing manager. He is as confident and engaged as Sideways' oenophile was dithering and in retreat.

WHY HE MIGHT NOT WIN: Cinderella Man was the year's most conspicuous and mysterious underperformer.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: That he's the sentimental favorite. That he's an actor's actor. But also that the contemporary relevance of Clooney's vehicle trumps the nostalgic pleasures of Giamatti's. And that, of course, he'll get an Oscar someday.

WHAT GIAMATTI IS SAYING: "My money would be on Clooney. Not because I don't think I deserve it. It's just not something I ever anticipated happening in my life."

GEORGE CLOONEY Syriana

WHY HE GOT THIS FAR: The usually suave and gorgeous actor put on weight (literally and figuratively) to play a tormented CIA operative trying to do the right thing in the morally and politically murky Middle East. Clooney is both commanding and sympathetic; his character's confusions and eventual tragedy mirror the region's much larger ones.

WHY HE MIGHT NOT WIN: Through no fault of his, audiences found the movie bewildering and the plot hard to follow and didn't take Syriana to heart. Voters admire cinematic ambition but avert their eyes from commercial failure.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: That Clooney, who is well liked in Hollywood for his low-key manner and firm principles, is the front runner. It doesn't hurt his chances either that his love child, Good Night, and Good Luck, has six major nominations but a small chance of winning any of them.