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(4 of 5)

WHAT CLOONEY IS SAYING: "I doubt it. I've been to all the awards shows [and seen who has won]. But it's going to be fun anyway."

DRUMROLL PLEASE

Who Will Win: Clooney Who Should Win: Clooney

AMY ADAMS Junebug

WHY SHE GOT THIS FAR: As Ashley, a North Carolina wife dazzled by a big-city visitor, Adams immediately and lastingly warms the movie. Her down-home roots, and her itch to escape them, are funny and poignant. She's the rare supporting character the leads end up supporting. And Adams gives voters the thrill of discovery.

WHY SHE MIGHT NOT WIN: She copped a slew of critics' awards but so far hasn't won any of the big prizes. Also, she'll be around, won't she? Or was Ashley just one of those happy flukes, the luck of a young actress falling into a part that suited her perfectly?

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: Hollywood loves stories like Adams'. A refugee from dinner theater in Minnesota, a onetime waitress at Hooters who was fired from two TV pilots, she shows that in the right role she can be magic. It's better than A Star Is Born.

WHAT ADAMS IS SAYING: "I loved Reese Witherspoon. She was just very subtle but effective." On her own category, however, she's mum.

RACHEL WEISZ The Constant Gardener

WHY SHE GOT THIS FAR: Like Adams, she plays a young idealist who loses a baby in childbirth. But Weisz's Tessa Quayle is no homebody; she's a crusader, spitting tacks at the power élite and venturing into the Kenyan wilds on a world-saving mission. Weisz brings her intelligence and ferocity to this banner waver--and displays a sexy humor that shows why her husband would be willing to die for her.

WHY SHE MIGHT NOT WIN: Does she draw viewers into Tessa's humanitarian obsessions, or is the character too spiky to get close to? WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: This category is often the most unpredictable, but she has won the two biggest awards so far. The past three winners have been actresses playing cocksure, take-charge women, and that's an apt description for Weisz's Tessa.

WHAT WEISZ IS SAYING: "Amy Adams is phenomenal. I mean, the tone of it was exquisite--a real tightrope walk. But then Michelle [Williams, in Brokeback Mountain] was incredible. I think they're all amazing. I could argue for any of us winning."

DRUMROLL PLEASE

Who Will Win: Weisz Who Should Win: Adams

CRASH VS. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN BEST MOTION PICTURE

CRASH Paul Haggis, Director

WHY IT GOT THIS FAR: Because it has large ambitions. It's an attempt to catch the spirit of a sprawling city (Los Angeles) through a multilayered, multicultural, multicharacter narrative--as it is reflected through a unique metaphor, traffic accidents. Oscar likes that sort of thing. He also likes the frugality with which Crash was made. Its big-picture feel was created on a relatively small budget by a first-time director whose energy, conviction and authentic concern for human behavior--granted, some of it slightly clichéd--override his occasional failures of technique.