Place Your Bets

(5 of 5)

WHY IT MIGHT STOP HERE: People either like the movie or loathe it. There isn't much middle ground on which compromisers can take a stand. And despite the fact that it contains a lot of fine acting by the likes of Matt Dillon and Terrence Howard, it is too wide-ranging to really draw you into the lives it recounts.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: That it is a movie Angelenos--who constitute the Academy's majority--perhaps like and identify with more than the rest of the country does. There's a sense of a little Crash boomlet beginning to crest on the West Coast. And that might cause a surprise on March 5.

WHAT ITS MAKERS ARE SAYING: An executive at Lionsgate, Crash's distributor, thought the tough job for his picture was getting it nominated. He was convinced that once voters saw it, Crash would have a good shot. So its Oscar campaign has consisted largely of a DVD blizzard of unprecedented size, which director Haggis thinks may be a new promotional paradigm. Nonetheless, he's aware that initially "people hated the politics of it, hated what I was saying and hated the filmmaking," and he doesn't believe that the more positive word of mouth that developed later will be able to overcome that early response. He expects "to be applauding Ang" Lee and Brokeback on the big night.

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN Ang Lee, Director

WHY IT GOT THIS FAR: It isn't a feel-good movie. But it is a movie it feels good to vote for: attractive representatives of a discriminated-against minority find a few moments of happiness in a more repressive America before tragedy claims them. Now, in a somewhat more enlightened era, we are made to feel pity and even a touch of terror for them. Shrewdly positioned as a romance rather than a message movie, Brokeback comes at us quietly. We really like these guys--one rough-hewn and silent, the other eager and somewhat unformed--and the picture's unforced, almost casual realization keeps us sympathetically involved with them even when their fates lead them into uncharted territory.

WHY IT MIGHT STOP HERE: The Academy remains a somewhat conservative body, and although this is a handsome and superbly acted film, it may not yet wish to endorse that "gay cowboy" movie. The film is also rather inarticulate--to some, one of its most touching strengths--and traditionally the Academy has preferred entertainments that state their business with a big thumping inspirational speech that is never spoken here.

WHAT THE BUZZ IS SAYING: That the competition this year is not strong, that Brokeback was perhaps the best-reviewed movie of the year and that Middle America has accepted it with surprising equanimity. Some sense in it the potential for a multiaward sweep.

WHAT ITS MAKERS ARE SAYING: "I'm terrified because I'm getting a lot of attention, and I'm always a little shy," says director Lee. "It's comforting, because if I don't win, then [all the attention] is not going to be my problem." So is he confident that his movie will win? "No," he says, laughing. But he's enjoying the process. "This is a good bunch. I've been in this round before, but this is the most pleasant year. These are good guys. "

DRUMROLL PLEASE

Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain Who Should Win: Crash