The Big Blank Canvas

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All the same, the promising new housing formula comes just in time for the beleaguered Nagin, who faces a tough election set for April 22. Last week Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu, brother of Louisiana's Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, announced his candidacy. Although Mitch Landrieu is white and Nagin is black, the racial politics of the mayoral contest, which includes seven other white candidates and one other African American, are not clear cut. Nagin came to office four years ago with strong support from the white business community--maybe too strong, in the eyes of lower-income black voters. Landrieu's father Moon, who was mayor of New Orleans in the 1970s, was widely popular with black voters, who have continued to support the younger Landrieu throughout his political career.

By the time of the election, there will have been another big development in the city's life. FEMA is expected to issue its advisory floodplain maps in March. Those will identify the most flood-prone parts of town, where homeowners must obtain flood insurance. Until the maps come out, it's hard for people to calculate the cost of returning. Construction worker Mike Reed was gutting a wood-frame house last week in Lakeview, a prosperous neighborhood on the lip of Lake Pontchartrain that was devastated when the 17th Street levee broke. "Most people have had their places gutted," he says. "But if you drive around, you'll see nobody putting up Sheetrock or restoring houses." Plus there's one other major unknown. "Everyone is waiting to see if the levees are going to be ready for June," says Reed. "That's when hurricane season begins."

All around the Big Easy, that's the other big if. Task Force Guardian is the group within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers charged with making short-term repairs to the levee system by the start of storm season. To date, the Corps has signed nearly $400 million in repair contracts. All around town its crews can be seen working to restore levees, fix flood walls and install interim floodgates and bypass pumps. But for months the mantra around New Orleans has been that in the longer term, the city must have more--namely storm protection sufficient to resist a Category 5 storm. (Katrina was at most a Category 4 when it hit land.) "We have got to feel confident the city is safe from floods, or businesses won't return," says Tom Oreck, head of a New Orleans vacuum-manufacturing company and a member of the Business Council of New Orleans and the River Region.

Last week, speaking to the city's business community, Bush's Katrina czar, Donald Powell, promised that the levees would be rebuilt "better and stronger" before hurricane season starts in June--thanks to $1.5 billion Congress approved in December for levee-repair work and temporary floodgates on Lake Pontchartrain. Will it be enough? To find out, the Corps, using a supercomputer and a centrifuge, is running simulations on 1,300 storm possibilities to calculate risk. East New Orleans is its test case, and its report is due later this month. "If there is another Katrina, the system is not built to deal with it," admits Ed Link, head of the Corps team assessing risk. That's why Bush last month asked Congress for an additional $1.46 billion to boost hurricane protection and restore wetlands in the New Orleans area.