What It Means for Your Wallet
•IS ALL THIS IMMIGRATION GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY?
By and large, yes. Immigrant labor is a drag on wage growth, thus keeping a lid on inflation and interest rates. As a result, prices for goods and services are lower, and citizens can purchase more. And immigrants are consumers too: some 80% of what undocumented workers earn in the U.S. stays in the country. A recent study by economists at the University of North Carolina found that Hispanic residents, 45% of whom were undocumented, contributed $9.2 billion in spending to North Carolina's economy in 2004. By taking the least desirable jobs, says John Kasarda, a co-author of the study, "they have kept some industries competitive that would have gone to Mexico and China."
•CAN THE U.S. ABSORB MORE IMMIGRANT WORKERS?
The Senate is considering a bill to grant 400,000 work visas annually for low-skilled immigrants in addition to the 140,000 visas currently available to foreign workers (including highly skilled ones). That's like adding a city the size of Atlanta each year. But it's a small fraction of the U.S. workforce of 139 million. "No credible estimate exists that [shows] immigrants cause unemployment," says James Smith, a senior economist at the Rand Corp. On the other hand, immigrants at least cause displacement by taking low-paying jobs from some Americans.
•WHO GETS HURT THE MOST?
Primarily those without high school degrees. Harvard economist George Borjas estimates that the influx of foreign-born laborers has shaved the incomes of U.S. high school dropouts as much as 8%--and taken their jobs in industries like food service and construction. Of the 4.8 million net new workers who entered the labor force from 2000 to 2005, 4.1 million were recent immigrants, says Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. "If you're young and male and a high school dropout, chances are you've been displaced by an illegal immigrant," he says. Forcing supplanted workers to find other employment, however, may encourage them to improve their skills and their earning power, says Smith. "It's not musical chairs."
•IF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS BECOME LEGAL, WON'T THEY COST BUSINESSES MORE?
Many employers already pay minimum wage to illegal workers. Although some shifty employers may still exploit workers they can keep off the books, "I really don't think most serious corporations want that," says Jagdish Bhagwati, an economist at Columbia University. That's because, says John Gay, a lobbyist for the National Restaurant Association, "a steady supply of dependable labor is more important [than minimum wage] to employers trying to grow their business." Forecasts of labor shortages spook some employers; restaurants expect 15% job growth over 10 years, while the labor force is predicted to grow only 10%.
•WHAT ABOUT THE STRAIN ON SOCIAL SERVICES?
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