A Welcome Outstayed

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When Chinese President Hu Jintao addressed Nigeria's National Assembly last week and spoke of the growing strategic relationship between China and Africa, parliamentarians gave him a standing ovation. But the National Assembly is less united on another matter: moves to change Nigeria's constitution to allow President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was elected in 1999 as the democratic savior of Africa's most populous nation, to run for a third four-year term in 2007.

Obasanjo himself has not publicly committed to running. But with a bill calling for a constitutional amendment now before parliament, the President's backers are rallying support for another term. Only Obasanjo, they argue, has the backbone to consolidate economic reforms that include paying off the country's debt and tackling corruption. To Obasanjo's fans, a change of leadership — particularly to Vice President Atiku Abubakar — would threaten any progress.

But many of the President's former supporters now accuse him of mismanagement and dictatorial tendencies — charges his allies reject. Changing the constitution will only fuel instability, say critics. Most Nigerians seem to agree: a recent poll by independent researcher Afrobarometer found that 8 out of 10 Nigerians oppose a third presidential term — a figure disputed by Obasanjo's camp.

Could the debate turn violent? U.S. intelligence czar John Negroponte told a Senate committee in March that a third term could trigger a"disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows and instability elsewhere in West Africa." That's more likely if Nigeria's politicians exploit ethnic divisions, as they have in the past. Chudi Akude, a spokesman for a new opposition party, worries that the ruling party is dominated by retired generals who run what he calls a civilian autocracy. "If [Obasanjo] continues with trying to perpetuate himself in government, I fear chaos and civil war," he says.

History isn't heartening. In 46 years, no democratically elected Nigerian President has successfully handed power to a democratically elected successor. Many still hope that next year Obasanjo will be the first to do so. But Bassie Roland Bassey, national secretary of the Obasanjo Solidarity Forum, says the country needs stability more than change: "You need someone who can hold the country together, who can hold the military together, who can hold the militias together. We believe that person is the President. Why change?" That's a sentiment with which President Hu might agree.