Iran's Power in the Shadows

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So what does Khamenei want? In Tehran, speculation about the cleric's ambitions and the future of his partnership with Ahmadinejad is a parlor game of government insiders. Though Khomeini's doctrine of velayet-e faqih grants Khamenei divine right to rule, Khamenei is a breed apart from most Shi'ite mullahs, who still abide by premodern strictures. "He wears a watch," says an intimate, to illustrate how Khamenei differs from his fellow clerics. He hikes in jeans in Tehran's Alborz Mountains and plays the tar, a traditional Iranian stringed instrument. On religious issues, Khamenei is a conservative in the mold of his predecessor, Khomeini. Khamenei considers the West morally bankrupt and has appointed officials hostile to women's rights and freedom of expression. But when it comes to his health, he places his faith in--along with God--medical doctors trained in the West.

What he lacks is Khomeini's populist charisma, which suggests why he has embraced Ahmadinejad's role of fire-breathing agitator. The two meet one evening a week, and intimates of Khamenei describe their interactions as those of a disciple with his leader. Khamenei praises the President regularly in his speeches and offers criticism in private. Ahmadinejad, for his part, has suppressed dissent and marginalized political opponents whom Khamenei considers a threat. Officials and outside analysts say Khamenei has never felt so in control. "Khamenei feels the President shares his values, so he sees the government as stronger and more stable than before," says Amir Mohebian, an analyst with close ties to prominent conservative officials.

The cleric's allies are sensitive to the perception that Ahmadinejad's celebrity has caused a decline in the Supreme Leader's public profile. "He's not being overshadowed at all," says the official with close ties to Khamenei. But a senior Iranian official and a Western diplomat say Khamenei reprimanded Ahmadinejad for his declaration that Israel should be "wiped off the map," and analysts in Tehran say Khamenei is worried about Ahmadinejad's uneven management of domestic affairs. The Western diplomat says Ahmadinejad is still "on probation"; some Iranians speculate that his unpredictability may force Khamenei to replace him. Says Hamidreza Jalaipour, a professor at Tehran University: "It's hard to tell how long this relationship is going to last."

Khamenei isn't likely to consent to giving up Iran's nuclear prerogatives without a price. The Bush Administration's agreement to join European-sponsored negotiations with Tehran is seen by Iranians as a major coup for Khamenei's hard-bargaining strategy. Those close to the cleric say he may ultimately be willing to agree to limits on Iran's nuclear program if direct talks with the U.S. lead to security guarantees and a lifting of the U.S. embargo on Iran. "The regime is dying to negotiate," says Jalaipour. Now Khamenei needs Washington to show it feels that way too.