Russia's New World Order

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Balancing Washington
For putin's policymakers, the U.S. remains the instinctive adversary, the country whose preponderance the Kremlin yearns to balance. Russia, of course, is not alone in seeking that goal; French President Jacques Chirac regularly advocates a "multipolar" world (and compared to many other G-8 leaders, has been markedly uncritical of Putin's record). But the intriguing thing about Putin's policy has been the way in which he has aligned Russian interests with those of another natural rival to the U.S., China.

ERIC DRAPER / AP IN THE CLUB: Putin's worked hard to develop a chummy relationship with Bush

Putin and China's President Hu Jintao meet frequently — five times in the last year alone. They've reached agreement on how to draw their countries' long-contested border and conducted large-scale joint military exercises. Two-way trade, which reached $29.1 billion last year, was up more than 50% in the first quarter of 2006 compared to 2005. Hu and Putin have a lot in common besides their approach to the U.S.: hostility toward "separatism" (in Chechnya, Tibet and Xinjiang) and wariness of politically unpredictable actors such as environmental groups, journalists and U.S.-funded ngos. They combined to pressure the U.S. to withdraw from a base in Uzbekistan established to help fight the Taliban, and have tried to engineer an eviction from another base in Kyrgyzstan.

Beijing

Editorials in China reflecting Beijing's official line blame Washington for a lingering cold-war mentality and stay tight-lipped on Putin's authoritarian excesses. "It's the best relationship between China and Russia in years," says Jiang Zhenjun, a professor at the Institute of Russian Studies at Heilongjiang University in Harbin. "Some say the relationship has peaked, but I think it's more like a couple in love: they've decided to marry and now what's left is to learn to live together on a day-to-day basis."

Even so, love may not conquer all. China is Russia's biggest customer for military equipment, but Moscow still has enough concern about China's intentions that it won't sell Beijing its best stuff. China wanted a new 4,100-km oil pipeline to go from Siberia directly into its territory, to ensure control over supplies; instead, Russia is building the main line to Nakhodka on the Pacific, from where it can sell to Japan, the U.S. and Korea, with just a branch to China.

Perhaps the greatest potential deal the two could strike is on manpower. Russia's male life expectancy has slumped to 58. It faces a declining population and will need millions of new workers to keep its economy chugging. China could easily supply them. But Russia, says Guan Guihai, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, "remains concerned that the Chinese population could overtake the Russian population in the border regions if labor policies were changed, and that would threaten national security." He says Russia gets nervous if China "sends as much as an economic research mission to one of the Central Asian countries." A marriage this may be, but it is one between porcupines.

The Middle East is another area where Moscow is feeling revitalized — yet there again, within limits. Arab unhappiness with the U.S. invasion of Iraq and stagnation in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process have given the Kremlin an opening to revive the strong ties the U.S.S.R. had with many Arab governments — which are glad for a counterweight to Bush. Last year Putin made the first journey to Cairo by a Russian head of state since Nikita Khrushchev's visit in 1964, just as President Hosni Mubarak was scrapping his annual trip to the White House. Russia is even starting an Arabic-language TV channel in the Middle East to spread its influence. With a little luck, the potential exists for Moscow to play a pivotal role in certain Middle Eastern issues, according to Gamal Abdul-Gawad Soltan of Cairo's Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. Russia, says Soltan, can pursue "a policy of blocking a consensus among major powers, which Middle East leaders can manipulate to avoid isolation" by Washington.

But Moscow is calibrating its steps carefully — and Washington recognizes the restraint. The most neuralgic Middle East problem is Iran, where Bush's determination to keep Tehran from getting nuclear weapons has been repeatedly mediated by the desire of Russia, China and European powers to coax Iran toward compromise rather than see an escalation toward another military confrontation. Russia has proposed a deal under which Tehran's nuclear-power program can proceed, but with fuel enriched at a joint center in Russia. Iran is glad for Moscow's help and hopes that its power and influence will grow over time, says Saeed Laylaz, a former Iranian official and political analyst. But Iran doesn't figure Putin has enough juice to deliver the running room it wants. "Officials here know that Russia is not truly capable of supporting Iran," says Laylaz. In any event, on an issue that has become central to the Bush Administration's calculations, Washington is pleased enough with Russia's behavior. "Our view at this point is that the Russians are in the right place on Iran," says a senior U.S. official.

The U.S. sees restraint in the way Putin has handled other potential disputes in the region. Russia sold missiles to longtime ally Syria, but the weapons haven't actually been shipped, as far as Washington knows. The Bush administration was less than thrilled when Moscow invited Hamas leaders to visit after they won the Palestinian elections — the organization is still on U.S. and European terror lists. Nevertheless, says the senior U.S. official, "as near as we can gather, they passed on the right message about recognizing Israel, renouncing terrorism and adhering to all the obligations the Palestinian authorities had undertaken" about negotiating with Israel.