Transformation is Hard

Sept. 11, 2001, was the crisis that produced the next opportunity for a major transformation. Bush proposed a bold vision, but one must judge a vision by whether it balances ideals with capabilities. Anyone can produce a wish list, but effective visions combine inspiration with feasibility. F.D.R. was good at this; Woodrow Wilson was not. F.D.R. was much more of a public educator than Bush, talking people carefully through the challenges and choices the nation faced, cultivating public opinion, building up a sturdy foundation of support before he acted. Bush's temperament is less patient. As a journalist put it, he likes to shake things up. That was the key to going into Iraq.

Looking back over the past century, successful major strategic transformations have been rare. Transformational leaders have not been necessary for successful foreign policy, even in periods of major change. President Bush aspires to buck that trend, but at this point it seems that the historical odds are against him.

Joseph S. Nye Jr. is distinguished service professor at Harvard and author of Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. This essay draws on his recent article in Foreign Affairs