Roots of Crisis: Why the Arabs and Israelis Fight

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But provoked by the hostage taking, Olmert's government is also trying to settle other scores. Palestinian militants have been regularly firing homemade Qassam rockets, a Hamas specialty, into Israel from Gaza--some 200 in June and 100 so far in July. Hizballah has occasionally also lobbed rockets across the border since the Israeli pullout. And Israel has watched in dismay as Hizballah has built border fortifications, sometimes 30 feet from Israeli outposts and stockpiled with what Israel estimates to be 13,000 rockets, including upgraded ones that can reach at least as far as the cities of Haifa and Tiberias.

Facing those threats, Israel isn't prepared to show mercy. In the case of Hizballah, especially, the Israelis are going well beyond retribution, taking an opportunity to degrade the organization's capabilities and, perhaps, cripple the group permanently. Said Defense Minister Amir Peretz: "The goal is for this to end with Hizballah so badly beaten that not a man in it does not regret having launched this incident." Most Israelis know the offensive has come at a heavy price--to civilians on both sides, to Lebanon's infrastructure and to Israel's reputation abroad. But from the government's point of view, it is necessary and it is working. Israel claims to have hit many stores of Hizballah's rockets, often within houses. What Israel wants is for the Lebanese to disarm Hizballah, but Israeli realists don't expect the Lebanese to go that far. A demilitarized zone in the south might suffice. The Israelis were heartened to hear that some Arab states and a number of Lebanese politicians were complaining that Hizballah had taken not just the Israeli soldiers but also all of Lebanon hostage.

The assault on Lebanon is intended to send a broader message too, at a time when Israel has largely given up on trying to negotiate for peace and security and instead is trying to establish them on its own. The strongest argument made by domestic critics of Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip last year was that the country's enemies would think it was weak and frightened and thus would be encouraged to strike out. Olmert's dual counterblasts are aimed at changing that impression--among those who believe it--to make the idea of attacking Israel prohibitively scary to the other side or, as the Israelis put it, to re-establish deterrence.

So where might this lead? Is anything remotely approaching quiet, if not quite peace, possible in a place where all the actors see gain in continuing to fight?

As bleak as it now looks, it's not entirely out of the question. The chances are greater in Lebanon, where there are actors with a clear interest in taming Hizballah. As in past flare-ups on the border, coming to terms will almost surely require a third-party interlocutor. "It could be the Red Cross or the Germans, the French, maybe a special adviser to Kofi Annan," says an Israeli intelligence official.