What Was He Thinking?

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But to Israel's surprise, instead of looking for a way out, Hizballah launched an escalation of its own, shooting longer-range missiles than it had ever used, forcing the 1 million Israelis in the north of the country--a sixth of the nation's population--into bomb shelters and paralyzing that region's economy. Jerusalem believes Hizballah is serving Iran's interests, perhaps to detract attention from Tehran's controversial nuclear program. Says Avi Dichter, Israel's Minister of Public Security: "We thought Hizballah would not sacrifice Lebanon on the Iranian altar. They did it very clearly, and it was contrary to Israel's assessments."

In other words, the escalating war is a result of two sets of miscalculations. Each side underestimated the other's fierceness and willingness to fight. So now the Israelis are stuck with a war on a scale they didn't plan for, and without an exit strategy. Hizballah is in a similar bind. At first, the Israelis spoke vaguely about the need to degrade Hizballah before ending their campaign. But as the battle escalated, so did Israel's expressed goals. Officials last week were demanding implementation of U.N. Resolution 1559, passed after Israel's 2000 pullout, which calls for disarming Hizballah and deploying the Lebanese army in the south, where Hizballah now rules unimpeded. The Lebanese government and army, however, are too weak to take on Hizballah and its patrons, including Syria, a country that long dominated and still influences Lebanon. Israel hopes third parties--the U.S., European powers, Turkey, perhaps Egypt--will help Lebanon defang Hizballah by sending peacekeeping troops to the southern part of the country.

Meanwhile, the war continues. The Israelis announced early on that they hoped to assassinate Nasrallah, whom they credit as a clever and potent adversary. Israeli forces last week dropped 23 tons of bombs on a bunker in Beirut where they believed he was hiding. Nasrallah appeared later in the taped TV interview, disappointing Israeli officials, who said they were still after him. Nasrallah's death would bring Jerusalem a huge symbolic victory. But Israel may eventually regret raising expectations that it will get him. (Ask George Bush about the wisdom of calling for Osama bin Laden's head.) "If Nasrallah is alive at the end of this and gives one of his speeches, it cannot look like an Israeli victory," says Eti Livni, a former Knesset member and close friend of Olmert's.