Six Keys to Peace

(3 of 6)

For the Arab states, it is axiomatic that a second key for curing the ills that have plagued the region is peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Settle that, many believe, and economic development will proceed apace, extremist groups will lose their reason for being, and public support for violence will evaporate. Even if some of those claims are far-fetchedwhat, precisely, has Israel done that would explain the woeful economic performance of the Arab world for a generation?they are deeply held and widely shared. "Terrorism," British Prime Minister Tony Blair told the U.S. Congress in 2003, "will not be defeated without peace in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. Here it is that the poison is incubated."

There is little disagreement among states in the region or outside it about what an ideal peace between Israel and the Palestinians would involve. Since before World War II, most reasonable observers have known that sooner or later, two states--one with a Jewish majority, one with an Arab one--would share the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. That was the basis of the talks between Israel and the Palestinians in the last year of the Clinton Administration; it was acknowledged by the meeting of Arab states in Beirut in 2002, when they committed themselves to "normal relations" with Israel if it withdrew to its pre-1967 borders; it was the basis of the road map adopted by the U.S. and other powers in 2003; and it was accepted, finally, by Israel's old warrior Ariel Sharon, although he ultimately lost faith in negotiations and adopted a policy of unilateral "disengagement" from the Palestinians. As Sharon's heir and successor, Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also knows that one day a Palestinian state will come. The belief is nearly universal. "We know we can't wind this up with guns and tanks," Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres told TIME. "The final solution has to be done diplomatically."

But 2006 is not 2000, when negotiations at Camp David got mired in the devilish details of a deal--how Jerusalem would be governed, how much land Israel would retain on the West Bank, how Palestinian refugees should be handled. Since then, Israel has seen suicide bombers flock to its cities from the West Bank and watched rockets sail into its towns from Gaza and Lebanon, areas from which it had withdrawn all its soldiers--in the case of Lebanon, a full six years ago. Within that context, it isn't the details of a two-state solution that matter now; it is something much more elemental. Israel needs to know that in any deal with the Palestinians, its people will be safe.

3 GUARANTEE ISRAEL'S SECURITY

FOR THAT REASON, THE THIRD KEY TO PEACE is to find a way to convince Israelis that they and their children can sleep easy at night. And here Israel finds itself in a dilemma. The Jewish state's superb armed forces never failed when asked to fight against massed armies in conventional wars. But Israel is not fighting a standard war now; with Hamas and Hizballah, it is battling against cells of well-trained militias energized by religious fervor. Armies surrender when their leaders tell them to; guerrillas just slip back to a safe house and wait to fight another day. Worse, today's irregular foes live in villages, hide in houses and are sheltered by civilians (or force civilians to shelter them).