Hillary: Love Her, Hate Her

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What they say is that 2008 is closer than it looks on your calendar. Whereas her husband could wait until just four months before the first caucus to make his announcement, a front-loaded presidential primary-and-caucus schedule and a growing field of contenders don't give Hillary that luxury. Her strategists tell TIME they are urging her to make her intentions clear by next spring--by forming an exploratory committee, for instance--to lock up fund-raising and political talent. Those close enough to know say that she is genuinely undecided but that Bill is not disguising his eagerness to see her make a bid for his old job. "He thinks that she should run, and he's going to do everything possible to help her," says Texas insurance mogul and philanthropist Bernard Rapoport, a longtime Clinton friend and backer.

LOVE HER, HATE HER

THE PROSPECT OF A HILLARY-FOR-PRESIDENT campaign has put much of the Democratic establishment in a bind. The early line is that Hillary would be unstoppable in a Democratic primary but unelectable in a general election. That bet would help explain the curious political subspecies I came across frequently in reporting this story: moneymen who are lining her campaign account even as they say privately they hope she won't run.

Her strategists point out that all she would have to do in November 2008 is win every state John Kerry did, plus one. They consider Ohio and Florida her best opportunities. And there is plenty of encouraging news for her in the latest TIME poll. More than half of those surveyed--53%--said they had a favorable impression of her; she registered higher than the other most familiar names in the potential Democratic field, Al Gore (49%), John Edwards (46%) and John Kerry (45%). Her negative ratings (44%) were lower than either Kerry's or Gore's. Edwards generated fewer negative reviews (31%), but 23% of those polled said they didn't know enough about him to have an opinion one way or the other. In hypothetical matchups with the preseason G.O.P. favorite, John McCain, Hillary is the only big-name Democrat to make a real race of it, with McCain edging her by just 2 points among registered voters. By comparison, McCain would trounce Kerry by 10 points and Gore by 9.

But what those overall figures do not show is how differently Hillary is viewed in red and blue America and how familiar she already is to voters. Other candidates may have a chance to persuade voters of their merits, but people have pretty much made up their mind about Hillary. Only 3% of those surveyed in the TIME poll said they had no opinion of her, positive or negative. She is the inkblot test of a polarized electorate. In the TIME poll, Democrats overwhelmingly describe her as a strong leader (77%) who has strong moral values (69%). Republicans by and large see an opportunist who would say or do anything to further her political ambitions (68%) and puts her political interests ahead of her beliefs (60%). As for independents, more than half (53%) of those surveyed said they would not support her, with 34% putting themselves in the "definitely not" category.