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Mission To Europe
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The big money issue is missile defense, which most of Europe opposes but knows it probably can't stop. The question is, How ugly will this get? The Administration won an initial battle against European resistance in Munich last February, when it insisted it would go ahead no matter what. And it has pursued that advantage by furiously repackaging the missile-defense concept as a collaborative venture, inviting Russia and E.U. members to be founding partners. No one has agreed to come aboard, but the Administration is convinced European objections will evaporate if the U.S. can get Russia to do so. "The bottom line for [Europe] is, Don't put us in the middle of a fight between you and the Russians," says a senior State Department official. And so all eyes are on the Putin meeting.
Back when he was still campaigning for the G.O.P. nomination, Bush remarked to TIME that "anyone who tells you they have Putin figured out is blowing smoke." A year later, Putin remains a mystery. Last week Bush told a visiting business executive that he wondered whether Putin's KGB past would make him even harder to read. "I want to look him in the eye," Bush said, "and see if I can see his soul."
Bush has discussed Putin with world leaders ranging from Britain's Tony Blair to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And he's been briefed by CIA experts on the way the former KGB officer charms foreign leaders in meetings such as this. Putin will be ready to banter on everything from the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty to Bush's love of baseball. He may even make some private small talk in English in an attempt to ease the tension of their first meeting. In that sense, at least, the Russian is a bit like Bush.
Putin is only marginally more experienced as a diplomat than Bush. For the Russian leader--whose key achievement has been to begin pulling his country out of an inferiority complex 10 years in the making--the meeting itself is the message. Securing quality time with a U.S. President signals that Russia remains a "great power" --if only because it retains its Soviet nuclear arsenal. Moscow lobbied hard for the meeting and wasn't pleased that Washington was slow to agree. Russian officials took note of every dismissive remark the Bushies made about Russia and were quick to point out that Bush found time to meet with the Prime Minister of Caribbean St. Kitts and Nevis (pop. 40,000) before he managed to squeeze Putin into his schedule.
When the Bush team took power, so intense was the desire for a missile shield that the only question seemed to be, Should we tear up the ABM treaty now or wait and do it in Putin's face? Five months later, officials gush about how "constructive" Putin has been on missile defense. As Europe's opposition stiffened, a meeting with Putin became a priority. "There was nothing to be gained by keeping Russia at a distance," says an aide. "We're more likely to work out our differences if we build up a decent relationship."
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