Drifting Apart

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Of course, the next U.S. President will pick up some easy tricks in Europe simply by not being Bush. Diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic say relations have reverted to a more workmanlike calm from the storms that gathered over the preparations for the Iraq war. The Transatlantic Trends survey shows many areas where public opinion on both sides is united, including a surprising willingness to take military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to stop its nuclear program (53% in the U.S., 45% in Europe). More than 70% on both sides of the Atlantic rate terrorism, global warming, Islamic fundamentalism, global pandemics and immigration as serious threats over the next 10 years. The problem is that agreement on general ends can easily dissolve in hard choices over means. While Europe and the U.S. are singing from the same hymnal (more or less) on Iran, for example, not much pressure would be needed to provoke public disharmony. The British official says, "We've papered over our differences over Iraq, more or less. But there's a sense we don't have a common view on a lot of hard problems — not just Iran but Afghanistan and what to do if Russia uses its oil and gas to throw its weight around. There's nothing very solid underneath if something tricky comes up."

In sum, the emotional estrangement from the U.S. now evident in Europe can't simply be wished away. It may transform itself into a "cafeteria Atlanticism" — wariness in general, coupled with recognition that there will be places both sides need to do business. When Blair chose to fight the anti-American mood inside the Labour Party at its annual conference last week, he picked for guest speaker the mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa — a Hispanic environmentalist and public-transit advocate from a state that just passed into law a version of the Kyoto accords. By the time he finished, the delegates were radiating fraternal feelings toward this representative of the U.S. Frenchman Benjamin Bechaux, 24, who just completed his studies at the prestigious French university Sciences Po, also expects a pick-and-choose approach toward the U.S. He spent nine months as an intern at the French consulate in Houston and came away with an indelible portrait of America's complexity. "The whole way of life — from your air-conditioned car to your air-conditioned job, then to an air-conditioned burger joint — this is the antithesis of what we want in France." But he noted that Houston, the heart of Bush country, has a Democratic mayor and a large gay population. "A lot of people there were as distraught as Europeans about the war in Lebanon," he says. "And even on an issue like global warming, there are all kinds of local and state charters to conserve energy. America is schizophrenic, the best and the worst."

How do U.S. policymakers react to Europe's new mood? To an extent, they shrug their shoulders at it, and they have some reason to do so. Europe doesn't count as much as it once did; it is not going to be the fulcrum of world wars anytime soon. It's only natural for Washington's attention to swivel toward Asia, with its rising powers, where U.S. ties are already extensive, and where it can deploy far more top-level expertise than modern Europe can. Some Americans dismiss Europe entirely. Kenneth Feltman of Radnor Inc., who surveys high-level "decision makers" for corporations and political candidates, says his U.S. decision makers have little sense of connection with Europe. One word always gets them nodding about Europe: "Whiney." Says Feltman: "Americans say, 'We used to worry about what Europe wants, but we can't figure it out. So we stopped worrying.'"

But that is dangerous ground. Not worrying about what others think speaks to a splendid isolationism of the mind. Even if Europe doesn't have the heft it used to, the U.S. will find managing the rise of Asia's new powers much harder without help from the bulk of the most prosperous democracies. Even if the U.S. seems more and more like another planet to younger Europeans, the problems posed by Islamic radicalism and Iranian nuclear weapons, to say nothing of global warming, will fester if the U.S. is not involved in seeking solutions.

So how could Europeans be persuaded to stop turning away from the U.S. and engage again? A first step would be for the U.S. not to demand submission from Europeans or lecture them all the time, but to argue and persuade: not on the basis that the "war on terror" justifies all, but showing respect for the international legal norms on which Europe now grounds its own peace and security. Europeans, you might say, want from the U.S. what a few isolated colonists on the edge of civilization thought was in their interest to offer the world two centuries ago: "A decent respect to the opinions of mankind." Without it, a deeper and unhappier independence will require no declaration.