When Outlaws Get The Bomb

(2 of 6)

When Pyongyang declared the success of its test, Japan swore it would continue to abjure nuclear arms. At a minimum, however, the incident will surely spur Japan's efforts to develop a missile-defense system in cooperation with the U.S. That, in turn, is bound to anger China and could push Beijing to spend more on nuclear weapons to ensure that Japan doesn't feel invulnerable. An icy East Asian cold war and a very hot arms race between Japan and China are a greater prospect now than they were a week ago.

And while Tokyo seems sincere about not going nuclear now--the antinuclear sentiment in that country, for obvious reasons, runs strong and deep--there are limits to how secure Japan may come to feel under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. If North Korea proves capable of putting a nuclear warhead on a missile that can reach the U.S.--it already has short-range missiles capable of reaching Tokyo--the strategic game changes. If North Korea could nuke Japan, or blackmail it, while credibly threatening to strike the U.S. with a nuclear warhead, would Japanese officials truly believe the U.S. would retaliate against Pyongyang--and risk a North Korean nuke landing in Honolulu? The day may come when Tokyo will have to make that precise calculation.

WHAT ABOUT AL-QAEDA?