How to Prevent Iraq From Getting Even Worse

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Haass, who served both President Bushes, says that despite the Administration's current reluctance, the U.S. will eventually find itself in such dire straits that it won't have much choice but to engage Syria and Iran. "We don't have the luxury of not talking with Iran about Iraq simply because we disagree with Iran about other things," Haass says flatly. "I believe that as a rule of thumb we make a mistake when we set preconditions for negotiations. What matters in a negotiation is not where you begin, but where you end up."

5

GET TOUGH. THEN GET OUT

Given the breakdown of security in much of Baghdad and western Iraq, military commanders won't contemplate an imminent reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Iraq--which is holding steady at 140,000. And although some hawks, like Arizona Senator John McCain, advocate sending more troops in the short term, the Bush Administration--and the public--hasn't signaled any inclination to do so.

Even at current troop levels, U.S. forces may be able to bring the violence down to a more tolerable level. As the insurgency has intensified, many U.S. units have gone into "force protection" mode: going outside the wire only when a situation has reached crisis proportions and there's little they can do to set things right. That's the scenario that unfolded in Balad last week, when U.S. forces stood on the sidelines despite calls by Sunni leaders for them to intervene against the Shi'ite death squads. Some top commanders would instead like to see the U.S. military adopt more aggressive counterinsurgency tactics. For instance, rather than confine most troops to a few large bases on the outskirts of urban centers, the commanders advocate setting up smaller "patrol bases" near volatile neighborhoods. Those would give U.S. troops a higher profile--which is in itself a deterrent against violence--and allow them to respond more swiftly to trouble.

In Baghdad, the Americans have increased their patrolling in the city, but they are rarely on hand to prevent Shi'ite militias or Sunni insurgents from strafing a neighborhood or snatching people from the streets. Setting up more patrol bases in Baghdad could allow for surprise swoops and a more rapid response to crises.

But the corollary to a more aggressive posture is that as U.S. troops grow more visible, the insurgents will have greater incentive to keep fighting, which would inevitably lead to higher U.S. casualties. Although the military says it can withstand even the heavy toll it has suffered this month, many officers, as well as lawmakers from both parties, acknowledge that the unabated sacrifice of American life will eventually exhaust what public support remains for the war. At the Pentagon, officers are discussing withdrawal schemes. The question at this point may simply come down to how rapidly it's done. "We're all waiting for Nov. 7," says a senior officer, referring to Election Day in the U.S. "We know things have to change, but it needs to be reasonable. They can't just want us to bail out immediately. That would be ugly."