How to Prevent Iraq From Getting Even Worse

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If all of these prescriptions were applied, would they make a difference? It's possible, but only if taken together. The Iraqi security forces can't be cleaned up unless the U.S. is prepared to face down al-Sadr--and it can accomplish neither of these tasks unless American commanders are allowed to be more aggressive on the ground. And no political solution is possible unless the Sunnis stay in the tent and the Iranians and Syrians agree to stay out of it.

Equally plausible, however, is the prospect that none of these steps will work, taken separately or together. Among independent analysts in Iraq and Washington, there is a growing skepticism about prescriptions of any kind. "No mix of options for U.S. action can provide a convincing plan for victory in Iraq," wrote Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in a recent paper. "The initiative has passed into Iraqi hands. There are no 'silver bullets' that can quickly rescue this situation." Saving Iraq, if it's still possible, won't happen without more blood and heartbreak--among Americans as well as Iraqis like Ammar Jawad. His family survived the bloodletting in Balad, and Jawad is leaning toward leaving his family there. He says he has "given up believing things will be better anywhere in Iraq." It will be a long time before Iraqis like him will be persuaded otherwise--no matter when the U.S. goes.