"Take About Five People with You and Vote. It Would Be a Sin Not To"

The souring of churchgoers' feelings toward the party is largely the result of frustrated expectations. Before the 2004 election, Bush and other Republican candidates promised to work for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, then largely ignored the issue once elected. "There's little to show for all the effort," says Farris. Also, many conservative leaders argue that the Foley embarrassment has shown that the party has become too permissive. "The big tent has become a three-ring circus," says Tony Perkins, the president of the influential Family Research Council. The Administration got a fresh blast of animus from such groups last week after remarks by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the swearing-in ceremony for the nation's global AIDS coordinator. She referred to the parents of his male partner as his "in-laws," which the Administration says was a mistake based on notes she had been handed and was not any sort of statement of policy. Meanwhile, David Kuo, who has just published an exposé of his stint as deputy director of Bush's faith-based office, used a spate of television appearances to argue that the White House had politically exploited the devout.

Christian conservatives who are sticking by the G.O.P. point out that there have been victories, most notably the confirmation of two conservatives to the Supreme Court. And the President has restricted federal funding for stem-cell research. But recognizing that their followers are out of sorts, leaders like Dobson have expanded their pitch beyond the traditional social issues like abortion and are making the fear of terrorism--Focus on the Family calls it the issue of "national sovereignty"--a central argument for turning out for Republicans. At three Stand for the Family rallies, which drew smaller crowds than similar ones in 2004, Dobson said "World War III," a battle against violent Muslims, "has started, and no one seems to know it."

Republican campaign operatives, meanwhile, are working directly to stoke turnout of these cranky but vital religious voters. Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, battling in one of the nation's closest races, appointed a Conservative Coalition director who organizes volunteers specializing in reaching traditionalists with messages about everything from taxes to marriage. In Tennessee, Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker has organized ministers to reach out to their churches' members on his behalf. For those campaigns, such efforts could be the difference between winning and losing. But that could be true for Christian conservatives as well. Evangelical leaders often complain that Republican officials have not given them sufficient credit for their muscle in the past three elections. If Nov. 7 turns into a G.O.P. wipeout, those same officials can be counted on to blame Christian voters above others.