Bush's Lonely Election Season

(3 of 5)

Of course, the President and his party still have some built-in advantages. The gerrymandering of the past decade has turned the vast majority of congressional districts into fortresses for incumbents, to the point where the number of House seats in serious contention is only about three dozen, compared with roughly 100 in the 1994 landslide that brought the G.O.P. to power with a 54-seat pickup. And the Republicans retain their advantage in money and, most operatives on both sides agree, the pinpoint sophistication of their turnout operation among a conservative base in which Bush still has nearly 90% approval in most polls. But even Republicans fret their loyalists have been discouraged by the Mark Foley scandal, and can't match the Democrats in passion. That fervor is being fueled by the bare-knuckled veterans who are heading up their House and Senate campaigns--New York Senator Charles Schumer and Chicago Congressman Rahm Emanuel--who have been urging their candidates to punch back at Bush directly on national security. And they have. In Rhode Island, Democratic Senate nominee Sheldon Whitehouse has been running an ad in which he says, "We need to send a clear signal that, folks, we are really getting out" of Iraq. So upended is the political calculus that it is now Republicans like Senate majority leader Bill Frist who are urging their candidates to steer clear of the war in favor of pocketbook issues.

CAPITAL CONFLICT

SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN IF WASHINGTON does become a stage of sectarian conflict after Nov. 7? For one thing, most of Bush's legislative agenda could be bound for gridlock. White House officials still talk hopefully of expanding Bush's No Child Left Behind education legislation. Other issues for which they argue they could get some kind of bipartisan traction include moving toward energy independence, lowering health-care costs and measures to fight terrorism. Bush's advisers even talk of enlisting Democrats for some grand push for entitlement reform, although anything like Bush's disastrous effort to add private accounts to Social Security would seem out of the question, given his inability to get anywhere even with a Republican Congress.

One area in which the President and a Democratic Congress might be able to make common cause is the immigration bill that has been one of his signature issues. The Senate has gone along with Bush's comprehensive approach, which includes both tougher enforcement of the border and expanded legalization for immigrants who are already in this country. But the closest thing to an immigration policy to come out of House Republicans was a 700-mile "virtual fence" along the border--a politically expedient idea that, enacted on its own, leaves Bush with less to horse-trade in his efforts to get what he really wants, which is serious reform. With that in mind, White House officials resisted holding a signing ceremony on the fence bill. But House Republican leaders were so insistent that the White House finally agreed to a low-key event in the Roosevelt Room with just six minutes of presidential remarks.