Campaign 2006: Election Guide

THE HOUSE

These eight bellwethers may tell you how big Democratic gains will be on election night

Republicans 232 Democrats 201 Independent 1 Vacant 1

NEW MEXICO

*Attorney general Patricia Madrid (D )

*Rep. Heather Wilson (R)

This swing district may reveal how much Iraq costs the G.O.P.: Wilson is an independent centrist with strong security cred; Madrid's campaign has been all about the war.

CONNECTICUT

*Ex--1st Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D)

*Rep. Chris Shays (R)

Shays, a well-liked moderate, has served 19 years in Congress but is faltering in this anti-Bush year as Farrell has relentlessly attacked him for his support of the Iraq war.

FLORIDA

*State senator Ron Klein (D)

*Rep. Clay Shaw (R)

Klein has made this race in an older-than-average Miami district into a test of the G.O.P.'s prescription-drug plan and ill will over its attempt to partially privatize Social Security.

MINNESOTA

*Child advocate Patty Wetterling (D)

*Rep. Michele Bachmann (R)

Wetterling, whose son was abducted in 1989, won sympathy when the House page scandal broke. Bachmann has attacked her as a tax-and-spend liberal.

NEW YORK

*Businessman Jack Davis (D)

*Rep. Tom Reynolds (R)

Reynolds urged Mark Foley to seek re-election despite knowing of a complaint against him by the parents of a House page, but Reynolds was already vulnerable to the populist Davis because of his district's struggling economy. Pork projects like a $25 million biotech center in Buffalo are keeping him in the race.

OHIO

*County comm. Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

*Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)

The fourth-ranking Republican in the House, Pryce is as clean as they come. But G.O.P.-dominated Ohio is awash in scandals, and her proximity to Foley-tainted Speaker Dennis Hastert has left her exposed to local anger with the party. Kilroy calls her a rubber stamp for Bush.

INDIANA

*Former Rep. Baron Hill (D)

*Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)

Just 1,400 votes separated these two last time. Sodrel has been touting his conservative stance on abortion and public prayer. Hill, a high school basketball star and former Congressman, accuses Sodrel of underfunding veterans' health-care programs. Sodrel denies it.

PENNSYLVANIA

*Attorney Lois Murphy (D)

*Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

Murphy's fund raising initially put Gerlach atop the list of endangered G.O.P. incumbents. But he has bounced back, attacking Murphy as too liberal and demonstrating the power of suburban issues, campaigning on a platform of preserving open spaces and lower taxes.

THE SENATE

Dems will have a tough time taking this chamber. But watch these races

Republicans Current 55 Contested 15

Democrats Current 44 Contested 17

Independent Current 1 Contested 1

TENNESSEE

*Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D)

*Former Mayor Bob Corker (R)