Thumbs Down for Chen

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has survived an assassin's bullet, massive opposition demonstrations and two legislative recall motions seeking to remove him from office. But after Taiwan High Court prosecutors indicted First Lady Wu Shu-chen on corruption and forgery charges last Friday, Chen now faces the biggest challenge yet to his presidency.

Conventional wisdom has held that Chen could stay in power as long as none of the long-swirling corruption allegations involving friends and family stuck to him or his wife. That scenario has now come to pass. Prosecutors say Wu used others' receipts to falsely claim $450,000 from a state fund. Three presidential aides were also charged, and Chen himself was listed as an accomplice and could face charges upon leaving office, when he loses presidential immunity. Amid renewed demonstrations against Chen in Taipei, Ma Ying-jeou, head of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), vowed a third recall motion if the President did not step down within two days.

Chen's future, though, may be decided not by his opponents but by his supporters. His Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stood by him during previous recall efforts, preventing the KMT and its allies from securing the legislative support needed to put a referendum to Taiwan's voters. "Up to now," says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson College in North Carolina, DPP members "have said if the choice is between supporting Chen or supporting our political enemies, we go with Chen." But now their frustration "could reach the tipping point." If only 12 of the legislature's 85 DPP members defect on a recall vote, Chen's fate will be in the hands of Taiwan's widely disillusioned public. That's a threat even Chen will have a hard time surviving.