Terror's Playground

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In mid-August, a large dhow originating in Iran and carrying arms, medical supplies and food arrived at a Mogadishu seaport. Included in the shipment were 80 man-portable surface-to-air missiles and launchers. The U.N. also charges that "at the time of writing of this report, there were two Iranians in Dhusa Mareb engaged on matters linked to the exploration of uranium in exchange for arms to the ICU." In separate letters written to the U.N., Syria and Iran denied having any involvement.

Foreign diplomats warn that the arms buildup may be a prelude to a wider war. Despite being sidelined by the Islamists, the transitional government still enjoys the full-throated backing of the international community and is being armed to the teeth by neighboring Ethiopia--a necessary violation of the country's arms embargo if the transitional government is to survive, but hardly endearing to most Somalis, for whom Ethiopia is a blood enemy. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's main rival in the region, Eritrea, has funneled arms and forces to the ICU. Peace talks between the Islamists and the transitional government have largely collapsed, and skirmishes are increasing.

The African Union plans to deploy some 7,000 African peacekeepers to keep the two sides at bay. But the Islamists have made clear they will consider this an act of war. "If they come, we will view them as invading troops," said Ahmed. "And we are ready to defend ourselves because we are not ready to be colonized again by any sort of troops in the world." Without those peacekeepers, however, the two sides seem destined to clash. A face-off would surely drag Ethiopia and Eritrea into a proxy--if not outright--war. The Islamists' stated aim to unite all of Somalia is believed to include the secular breakaway territories of Puntland and Somaliland, as well as portions of Kenya and Ethiopia. Once fighting has begun, there's little to prevent Somalia from becoming a conflict that could engulf the Horn of Africa, cause horrific loss of life and create the continent's next major humanitarian crisis.

With those storm clouds gathering, the Islamists in Mogadishu are intent on solidifying their hold on power, dispensing their harsh brand of justice and leaving no doubt about who's in control. A reminder of that came on a clear blue morning in mid-October, when thousands of Somalis gathered at the parade ground of the old police barracks on the city's battered coast. Guards led a tall, undernourished man, condemned to death for killing another man, to a clearing in the center. After a reading from the Koran, the man conducted his ablutions, said a prayer and was led to a post facing eight soldiers in balaclavas and armed with AKs. His hands and feet were tied and his eyes blindfolded. With the bright blue sea behind him and puffy white clouds above, and to the jubilant shouts of Allahu akbar (God is great) from the crowd, the man's head and stomach were ripped by bullets.