Campaign 2008: G.O.P. Explorers

By DEPARTMENT Sunday, Nov. 19, 2006

Potential presidential candidates used to take their time deciding whether to run; now, you can't be coy. Several Republicans are already forming exploratory committees. Betting site Tradesport.com gives the odds for each to win the nomination. [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

THE CONTENDER WHY THEY HAVE A CHANCE BUT ... John McCain Odds: 10 to 11 He's John McCain! War hero, anticorruption crusader, George W. Bush's best frenemy in the world. And it doesn't hurt that the press loves him. The G.O.P. base doesn't trust anyone loved by the media, and his liberal fan base may offend a few conservatives. Plus, he wants to send more troops to Iraq. Rudy Giuliani Odds: 47 to 1 America's Mayor led New York City through 9/11; he has a no-nonsense attitude toward crime, budgets and basically anything else that annoys him. He might lose the family-values vote with two divorces behind him. He has supported gays but not guns. Republicans don't know his blue side now, but they will. Tommy Thompson Odds: 124 to 1 Former Wisconsin Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services under Bush. He's the original welfare reformer and loves health care. Wisconsin. Campaigning on health care and welfare? Not very exciting. And his other talking points--energy conservation and the Iraq war--aren't exactly original. Duncan Hunter Odds: 142 to 1 House Armed Services chair co-wrote a bill to put a fence along Mexico's border. Will protect the unborn and military contractors too. Lack of name recognition may end up hurting his chances, plus he's been tainted with connections to disgraced former Representative Randy (Duke) Cunningham.