Saving Somalia

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Just as worrying is the growing prospect of an anti-Ethiopian, antigovernment Islamist insurgency. Anonymous leaflets have appeared on the streets of Mogadishu advising Somalis to stay away from Ethiopians and "traitors," as "they will be our targets." Said Ali, a volunteer for the I.C.U.'s élite unit, Shabab (meaning Youth), told me he was among 5,000 fighters in Mogadishu preparing for guerrilla war. Sporadic attacks on Ethiopian troops across Somalia are killing one or two a day. Ali told me, "People think our group is something else--al-Qaeda. We're not. We fight for the people. We fight for Somalia." That could change, however--especially if the U.S. is seen to be turning the country into another front in the war on terrorism. Iraq shows how labeling an insurgency as linked to al-Qaeda can become self-fulfilling: conflict pushes extremists to the fore and is a magnet for itinerant foreign jihadis.

Can Somalia be saved? Washington has signaled an interest in re-establishing a diplomatic presence in Mogadishu, but so far its involvement in Somalia has been limited to military action. World donors have pledged a paltry $40 million to the transitional government and 8,000 African Union troops. Preventing Somalia from sliding back into violent anarchy would require a quick withdrawal by Ethiopia--a vacuum that would need to be filled immediately by international peacekeepers--and reconciliation among the government, the Islamists and Somalia's myriad clans.

In short, Somalia needs a strategy that goes beyond the narrow focus on chasing terrorists, a short-term goal that often comes at the expense of long-term stability. Gedi, 54, is trying to do his part: in his first week in office, he opened Mogadishu's municipal courts, inaugurated a new national army and convened Somalia's new parliament. "We are working trust and faith to bring forward reconciliation and stabilization," he says, "so we can recover from all the disasters of the past." He still has a long way to go.