The Reality of Civil War

(2 of 2)

Can anything be done by outsiders to stop civil wars? One key finding by Collier is that, until recently, former French colonies in Africa were less likely than comparably poor countries to experience civil war. That was because the French (unlike the British) effectively gave informal security guarantees to the new governments, promising to use French troops to quash rebellions. But in the absence of such postcolonial arrangements, is it possible for foreigners to stop a civil war?

The answer is yes, but seldom because foreigners are able to impose a nice power-sharing agreement between the warring parties. More commonly, foreign intervention ends a civil war by helping one side defeat the other. That was essentially what happened in the Balkans in the 1990s, when NATO finally intervened against the Serbs. The British ended the civil war in Sierra Leone by beating the rebels. Something similar just happened in Somalia.

Although he no longer expects a "surrender ceremony on the deck of a battleship," President Bush insists that victory in Iraq is still attainable. He may be right. Unfortunately, history suggests that the only kind of victory within reach is an American-assisted Shi'ite victory over the Sunni minority. And that is likely to be both protracted and very ugly indeed. •

Ferguson is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University