In the Land Of the Lonely

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It won't be easy. Polls show that a thin majority of Israelis want to get rid of settlements. But Olmert's dismal approval ratings have forced him into a marriage of convenience with the pro-settlement right wing. A large-scale campaign to evacuate Jewish settlers could produce more clashes like the one that erupted last January in an outpost called Amona, when an army effort to dislodge a few families left 200 soldiers and settlers injured. Another outbreak of violence could bring down Olmert's centrist government, which would probably hand power to hawkish parties who are in no mood to make peace with the Palestinians. As Gershom Gorenberg, an expert on the history of Israel's settlements, says, "Olmert's biggest fear is Jews fighting Jews, and that gives the settlers a stranglehold over the government."

The fate of the peace process, in other words, may be decided by what happens in places like Migron. As Israeli society has grown more secular and less attached to the vision of a greater Israel, ideological splits have emerged among the settlers. The most radical "hilltop youths" are ready to mobilize and resist the government's attempts to remove them. Many like Harel are second-generation settlers, the sons and daughters of older Zionists. They have grown up steeped in holy books and prophecy and see themselves as the first line of defense against the Arabs. They consider themselves divorced from the state and view the army and politicians, once their loudest cheerleaders, with distrust and suspicion. It has become a showdown of "Jews vs. Israelis," as Gorenberg puts it, and these extremists believe themselves to be the righteous Jews.

The family of Harel, the founder of Migron, embodies that divide. Harel's father Israel was among the early settlers who crossed into Jordanian territory after the 1967 war. He says that settlers like him were driven by a collective Zionism akin to socialism. "Our motivation wasn't religious," says the elder Harel. But younger settlers, like his son, seek more "divine reasons" for spreading into the Palestinian lands. "This transition into religious nationalism is unfortunate. It makes us into a sect," the elder Harel says. "And it doesn't represent what the majority of Israelis think."

Some radical settlers are hurting their own cause. Israeli television showed footage last week of a young settler, and her child, taunting a Palestinian girl in Hebron and cursing her as a "whore." Similar ugly scenes of Jewish settlers hacking down ancient Palestinian olive groves or beating up Arab schoolkids are just part of the reason why many Israelis have turned against them. Another is money: guarding and maintaining the settlements costs plenty. A study by the newspaper Ha'aretz reckons that since 1967, the bills run upwards of $10 billion, excluding military costs in the West Bank. According to Yaacov Shamir, a communications professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, recent polls show that 52% of Israelis are prepared to withdraw from settlements as part of a future peace deal with Palestinians.