During the summer it's been surprising how much regular Australians have been talking about politics. And how quickly new Labor leader Kevin Rudd has become a fixture in that conversation. Rudd, 49, has insinuated himself into the familiar backdrop of holidays—cricket, barbecues and bushfires—without, it seems, getting up people's noses. Few days pass without the hyperactive Queenslander making his earnest contribution, on radio or TV, to the issue of the moment. It's said that Rudd also took a short break. Even workaholics need a few days to shoot TV ads, strategize and catch up on recreational reading about monetary policy and political philosophy. With the country's workplaces and schools returning to normal patterns this week, the election campaign has begun—though the poll isn't due until late 2007. Howard is seeking a fifth term and remains the punters' favorite: employment and consumer spending are strong, the Prime Minister is a wily operator, his opponent an inexperienced leader. According to Centrebet, based on a $1 wager, a win for Howard's Liberal-National coalition will return $1.72; one for Labor $2. But the sports-betting agency says Labor could become the favorite within weeks. A combination of voters' curiosity and Rudd's fidelity to the media spotlight has produced a big bounce for the Opposition leader in opinion polls. According to Newspoll, Rudd's approval rating
(56%) is now 10 points higher than Howard's; the P.M.'s customary edge on the question of who is best to lead the country has almost disappeared since Rudd replaced Kim Beazley in early December.
Rudd's team is a little fresher than Beazley's. But Labor's message is essentially the same: Howard's government is tired, it has lost touch with Middle Australia, its changes to workplace relations are extreme, it has neglected the environment, and the country's future wealth will be at risk when the resources boom ends. Somehow, with a mix of clichés ("Australia has reached a fork in the road") and slogans ("China's quarry and Japan's beach"), Rudd has managed to "cut through"—the dream of political word wranglers. Inevitably, Rudd's success so far has elicited comparisons with former leader Mark Latham, who made local politics interesting in 2004. All of Canberra's political pros have come a long way since then. In any case, it's worth noting that Team Rudd is several notches above the Crazy Lathams and Beazley's Bunch. Rudd, a lifelong striver, is more assured than his predecessors, rounded, grounded and disciplined. But the question
remains: can his staff, parliamentary colleagues and party keep up with him?
To begin with a sprint in this year's half-marathon to the Lodge, Rudd declared on Jan. 23 during a speech at Melbourne University that the Australian economy needs an "education revolution." He issued a discussion paper that placed education at the center of the country's long-term economic future and Labor's historical devotion to fairness: "If the 19th century was driven by an industrial revolution, and the 20th century by a technological revolution, what is needed for the 21st century is an education revolution." Rudd pointed to a slide in workers' productivity. A decade ago, Australians' output was at 85% of U.S. levels; by 2005 it had dropped to 79%. Rudd argued that the country lacked the skills to prosper in an economic era when the main action would switch to Asia and would be dominated by knowledge enterprises. Labor, he said, would invest more in education and set higher standards of achievement for teachers and students.
While education policy is traditionally a strong suit for Labor, the Howard government is particularly vulnerable to claims that it has neglected this area. Australia ranks low among rich countries on spending for early childhood education, scientific research and development, and vocational skills. The government's top economic bureaucrats have consistently warned of the need to boost productivity and invest in education and skills so as to reduce the future financial burden on younger workers as the boomer generation retires. In the popular mind, Howard's government, which has delivered good economic results for a decade, does not rate highly on education. To the contrary, it is associated with large funding cuts to universities, higher fees for tertiary students, disputes with education unions and a kindly disposition toward elite private schools.
If education is Labor's agenda, Rudd is the right salesman. His first TV commercial is a highlights reel for someone who could have starred in Australia's Brainiest Kid or It's Academic: from bush school to the Australian National University … and beyond! Learning is at the "kitchen table" of middle Australian families, to quote the vanquished Beazley; the self-employed and middle-income parents who obsess about education and private-school fees and have lately voted for Howard will take a very close look at Rudd's education policies in the coming months. Of course, if Labor does not cost them properly, or is too cosy with the academics or slipshod about standards, Howard will flay Rudd, just as he demolished Paul Keating, then Beazley, then Simon Crean, then Latham, then Beazley again. Rudd has made a wonderful start in his new job. But he'll need to learn fast how to foment his own voters' revolution if he is to topple the fortified House of Howard.
RSS