Leaders Face Up To A Changing World at Davos

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That was then. In 2007, the Russians were all over Davos once again — Russian politicians thinking ahead to the post-Putin era, and Russian businessmen riding the oil and commodities boom with a look of steely determination. Dmitri Medvedev, Russia 's First Deputy Prime Minister (and a rumored successor to Putin), spoke of Russia as "another country" from the way it had been in 2000, when its economy was marked by low productivity and high inflation.

Those bothered by the sense that Russia was starting to throw its weight around were told to relax. Russia, Medvedev said, wanted to be recognized as a major economic and political power "not by the use of force but by the example of our own behavior and achievements." Any concerns about the way Russia sets about business and politics, Medvedev said, stemmed from "a lack of communication," rather than anything Russia did. But those worried by Russia's use of its energy resources as a political weapon — ask the Ukrainians or Belarusians about that — were granted little comfort. The days when Russia sent energy to its friends at less than market rates are gone for good. "There will no longer be any free gas for anyone," said Medvedev, for those who had not yet got the message.

Demography As Destiny
Everyone arrived in Davos ready to talk about climate change, and plenty did. But for me, another meta-theme — much less evident on the formal program — kept cropping up in interesting ways. That was the idea that, as population continues to grow in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, even as the population in Europe stagnates at best, so huge and unpredictable political and economic power swings may follow. Certainly, the Indians present — this was the second year running that they provided a huge contingent, and threw some of the best parties, too — had the sort of confidence that comes from knowing that their domestic market is going to continue to grow. The European one won't. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in her second year already something of a Davos star, spoke of the end of a "Eurocentric" view of the world, but most leaders I talked to thought that European public opinion was still woefully ignorant of the ways in which the old Continent's influence may shrink in the coming years. That said, I wanted someone to challenge the conventional wisdom, and argue that low birthrates are compatible with long-term prosperity and happiness.

(Scandinavia, anyone?) But I didn't hear that case.

Maybe that's something for next year, as the Davos devotees gather again. "The world," said British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in what was his last appearance at Davos as a head of government, "is in a kind of perpetual global conversation." It's the easiest thing imaginable to make fun of the sometimes self-important men and women with their self-important ways who trot to Switzerland each January. But the truth of the matter remains: despite all its challengers, you never hear more of that global conversation in one place, and one short spell of time, than you do in Davos.

Sometimes, power doesn't shift.