How Big Money Picks a Winner

Former Senator Howard Baker once called Republican fund raiser Ted Welch "the No. 1 political fund raiser in all history." In late December, Welch signed up as Mitt Romney's national finance co-chair after one meeting. Welch admits he was also approached by the McCain campaign, but "I did not even think of them." Why? He says there was an "incident."

The incident involved Welch's longtime ally Lamar Alexander. To begin with, John McCain failed to support Alexander's November bid for Senate minority whip against Mississippi's Trent Lott. And then, Welch complains, McCain "went and convinced two other people to change their votes. I thought that was egregious." The McCain camp acknowledges recruiting on Lott's behalf. In the end, Alexander lost by one vote.

The 2008 presidential season is off to an early and crowded start. Candidates will be raising more money than ever before, not just to pay for a longer campaign but also to distance themselves from the pack of pretenders as quickly as possible. With the first actual ballots still 11 months away, Washington is already looking closely at which fund raisers have paired up with which candidate to get an early sense of a campaign's strength. Many fund raisers remain unattached for the time being, but the next few weeks are a critical juncture that will cement most of the notable partnerships. What used to be likened to a courtship is now more like speed-dating. What exactly makes these relationships come together? How do the moneymen and -women make up their minds?

Business interests, of course, play a role. Once the general-election choices are locked in, trial lawyers will have fallen in love with a Democrat, just as oilmen will find true romance with a Republican. But at this early stage, the contest for the support of influential fund raisers and large donors is also a personal one, with allegiances, grudges and gut feelings determining the fate of millions of dollars and eventually shaping the nomination field.

The most established operation in the race is also the brashest. Hillary Clinton has a cadre of dedicated fund raisers who have been with her since her husband's days in the White House. She recently made headlines by setting the audacious goal of having her top moneymakers bring in $1 million each, a mark that makes the $200,000 Bush's Rangers raised in 2004 seem quaint by comparison.

Clinton has been actively pursuing new "Hillraisers," particularly as she and Illinois Senator Barack Obama have fought to recruit what is left of John Kerry's money team. "The first time Hillary Clinton called me, I thought someone was pulling my leg," says Rob Crowe, the as-yet-undecided finance co-chair for Kerry's political-action committee. "She said, 'I know you're probably in mourning, but we'd love to get you on board.'" One less empathetic candidate called Crowe before Kerry had even finished his speech bowing out of the race.

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