Bush's July Surprise for Iraq

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None of these machinations have much to do with the situation on the ground in Iraq. The political situation there has grown dire. There is a wicked little battle brewing between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his most powerful Shi'ite supporter, Muqtada al-Sadr. "In just a few months, al-Maliki has moved from 'You can't go after al-Sadr' to seeing [al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia] as a serious threat to his power," Ambassador Crocker told me in Baghdad a few weeks ago. Both al-Maliki and al-Sadr are plotting and scheming to oust each other. The Sadrist parliamentary bloc is planning to force a no-confidence vote on al-Maliki that could conceivably bring down the government. Given the amount of time it takes for the Iraqis to organize a ruling coalition--5 1/2 months last time--President Bush may find himself alone in Iraq, without a local ally, for the indefinite future.

time.com/swampland