Oh, Brother: Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski

On matters of foreign policy, Civic Platform leaders are just as staunchly nationalistic as their rivals. On Aug. 15 — the same day that Lech Kaczynski paraded alongside columns of tanks and troops to celebrate a great Polish victory over Russian Bolshevik forces in 1920 — the Civic Platform leader Donald Tusk, a prospective Prime Minister, did his own bit for Polish patriotism by trying (unsuccessfully) to enter Belarus to celebrate the holiday with Polish nationals there. Economists, for their part, say that while the Civic Platform is friendlier toward business than the current government, it still may not have the political will to effect the tax-system and public-spending reforms that Poland desperately needs. "Economic conditions won't deteriorate, but it's hard to say whether they will improve," says Jacek Wisniewski, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank in Warsaw.

Polish sociologist Kinga Dunin, writing in the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza, described the difference between the two groupings by invoking potatoes, again. If the Kaczynskis are plain old tubers, she wrote, the Civic Platform politicians are French fries. The cut is different and their appearance may attract more consumers, but "the thing is that French fries are made of potatoes and it is not possible to hide it." To be sure, some things will change. What critics regard as Jaroslaw's preference for loyalty over competence — evidenced, they say, by key appointments in his Cabinet — may not be repeated. And some moderation in the tone of Poland's public diplomacy can also be expected: it is unlikely that the Civic Platform would repeat the less-than-convincing argument, made by Jaroslaw this summer, that Poland should get more votes in European Union councils because of Polish population losses at Nazi hands during World War II. It's also doubtful that an official will propose investigating the sexuality of Tinky Winky, a character in the children's TV show Teletubbies, as one government appointee did earlier this year.

On the other hand, the Law and Justice Party has achieved some things in office that its successors may want to emulate. They include the streamlining of government spending to properly disburse billions of euros in E.U. assistance to new member states; greater budgetary discipline; and an overdue housecleaning of former communist officials in the country's military intelligence service. Unemployment fell by four points from a high of 18% on the Law and Justice Party's watch, and the economy is growing at an impressive rate of 6%. No doubt the Kaczynskis will seek to stress that part of their record in the upcoming election campaign. Given the mishaps of the past two years, however, their party seems unlikely to close the gap with Civic Platform as it did back in 2005. But humorists can take heart. The twins are likely to remain political players in Poland for some years to come.