Ethiopia: Horn of Dilemma

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Whatever Washington's misgivings, there is little doubt that once Ethiopia committed to an invasion, the U.S. provided intelligence, military targeting and logistical support to Ethiopian forces in Somalia — support which continues to this day. Despite this cooperation, further differences between the U.S. and Ethiopia surfaced earlier this year when Ethiopian soldiers detained for 24 hours four unidentified U.S. personnel close to a U.S. Special Forces base at Gode in the Ogaden, an incident confirmed both by a U.S. diplomat in the region and Meles. The men were held on suspicion of trying to open contacts with the ONLF. U.S. officials say the mission was unauthorized, with one adding: "Those guys don't work around here anymore." Acknowledging the incident, Meles says: "The U.S. is focused on international terrorism. The ONLF does not have an international dimension. So there is a slight divergence of perspective."

International criticism of Ethiopia often centers on human rights. Meles, 52, is a former rebel leader who helped overthrow dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991 and whose Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front has held power since. While the European Union deemed the 2005 general election not credible, the African Union and the Carter Institute declared it free and fair. But when the opposition objected to Meles' victory with mass protests, Ethiopia's security forces cracked down, killing dozens of people and jailing thousands. This month, the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is probing allegations that the security forces are waging a scorched-earth war against the ONLF in the Ogaden, burning villages and displacing residents. Meles denies this, saying, "No credible international or intelligence organization has come up with a shred of evidence" to support the allegations.

The Bush Administration, which condemned the 2005 crackdown, has been largely silent on the accusations of human-rights violations in Ogaden. The Western diplomat believes Ethiopia "bought itself a free pass on human rights" by cooperating in the hunt for the three al-Qaeda operatives. True or not, Frazer has made it clear where U.S. support lies. Last month, after Eritrea closed the American consulate in Asmara, she announced Washington was doing the same to the Eritrean consulate in Oakland, Calif., and considering adding the Eritrean government to its list of state sponsors of terrorism. "Eritrea has played a key role in financing, funding and arming the terror and insurgency activities ... in Somalia," said Frazer in an August briefing. "If they continue their behavior and we put together the file that's necessary, I think it would be fairly convincing." U.S. diplomats in the region, meanwhile, push the view that Meles is a reformed rebel turned aspirant democrat, whereas Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is an unreconstructed guerrilla leader.

War is not certain, of course. Despite Meles' saber-rattling speech to parliament in June, in an interview with Time he described times in the past when his party forced him to adopt a more aggressive line with Eritrea than he would have preferred. "There were a number of times when I found myself in a minority and implementing decisions I was uncomfortable with." Asked what is his prime motivation, he answers: "It has always been fear." During the years of famine, it was "fear that this nation, which was great 1,000 years ago ... may be on the verge of total collapse." Today it's "fear that the light which is beginning to flicker, this Ethiopian renaissance, might be dimmed by some bloody mistake by someone, somewhere." Considering the region's history, fearing a bloody mistake seems a wise policy.