Pakistan's Drama Unfolds

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A follower of Sharif takes part in a demo to protest his hero's deportation. Sharif flew from London to Islamabad after seven years in exile, but was sent to Saudi Arabia after just four hours on the ground

Stephanie Sinclair for TIME

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Because Pakistan is a frontline state in the war on terror, what happens there is closely followed by Washington. The State Department has studiously stayed away from condemning Sharif's deportation. "It's a matter for the Pakistanis to resolve," said spokesman Sean McCormack. "The Pakistani Supreme Court has made a judgment about this issue and the decision to deport Mr. Sharif runs contrary to that, but it is still a pending legal matter in Pakistan, so we're not going to have anything to say about it."

Washington seems to be still fully behind Musharraf. "Yes, on paper [his] power is diminished," says a State Department official. "But the hope is that Musharraf will continue to influence policy in the war on terror as President." Retired Lieut. General Hamid Gul, former director of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, calls the Americans "naive" for thinking that Musharraf will have any power if he steps down as military chief, or that Bhutto as Prime Minister will be able to control the army. "The Pakistani army is a one-man show. Whoever is chief gets to call the shots. And if you send the army back to the barracks, no civilian leader can tell them what to do." Gul says that in trying to influence the political process in Pakistan, the U.S. is playing with fire. Just as Bhutto has been tainted by her relationship with Musharraf, the President is sullied by his relationship with Washington. Warns Gul: "The more the people of Pakistan become disillusioned with their leadership, and the more America gives support to that government which is failing the Pakistani people, the closer the time comes that someone picks up a flag and says, 'follow me, we are going to fight the Americans.' As President of Pakistan, as military leader, Pervez Musharraf is history. And if Americans try to reverse the course of history then it will be to their own disadvantage."

Which raises the question: If Musharraf's position is so tenuous, why is the U.S. so lukewarm to Sharif? Perhaps because the Bush Administration does not think he will ever be a serious contender for power. "His popularity is linked not to what he is but what he represents," says a State Department official. A senior Bush Administration official says Bhutto's party "has historically been more popular and closer to the moderate center than [Sharif's] party."

Yet, as PM, Sharif had excellent ties with the Clinton White House, allowing the U.S. to use Pakistani airspace for missile attacks against al-Qaeda bases in Afghanistan in 1998. He cracked down on sectarian extremism, and used his influence with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to curb opium production and extradite known terrorists. As a center-right politician, he is much closer to the conservative parties that hold sway over Pakistan's religious leaders. Bhutto, says Zahid Hussain, author of the seminal Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle With Militant Islam, risks alienating the conservative groups by driving them into the embrace of extremists. "The problem with Benazir is that her coming to power will increase polarization. She is seen as pro-West, and she is very clear about it." Sharif himself has made it clear that combating militancy would be top of his agenda were he, or his party, to lead Pakistan. "You can't fight terror the way Mr. Musharraf is fighting," he told CNN. "He needs the threat of terror for his own survival. We will fight out of conviction."

But Pakistan does not have a tradition of leaders who put the nation above self. During Sharif's time in office, he tested six nuclear devices, dismissed a Supreme Court chief justice (as Musharraf tried to do), and promoted Islamic law. The press was often, and brutally, stopped from reporting on sensitive matters. Under Sharif's rule, Pakistan and India nearly erupted into nuclear war over Kashmir, when Musharraf, as head of the army, sent troops into Indian-held territory at Kargil. (Sharif maintains that Musharraf acted on his own, and that he subsequently tried to dismiss Musharraf — the act that led to his eventual overthrow.)

Musharraf, for his part, has not been all bad for Pakistan. The economy is growing at a rapid clip, new infrastructure projects have brought roads, water and electricity to remote areas, and the arts and media are freer than they have been in a long while. But it's a quirk of Pakistani politics that leaders are easily built up, torn down, cannibalized and regurgitated. Like Musharraf, Sharif has a new persona. Once deemed an industrialist out of touch with the masses, he is now seen as an economic savior who will curb the crippling inflation that plagues Pakistan today. Corruption charges against him, including money laundering through a paper mill to the tune of about $31.5 million, are glossed over as opposition propaganda. (Sharif denies the charges.) He even gets credit for standing up to the Indians at Kargil, and is lionized as a hero for the nuclear tests he conducted. "He is a true patriot," says Naveed Khawaja, a 40-year-old office worker in Rawalpindi.

PILDAT's Mehboob disagrees. He reckons that of all Pakistan's imperfect leaders, Musharraf is the best of the lot. "Nobody can fix all the problems in this country. But Musharraf promised Pakistan when he took power that he would fix democracy. And now he has that opportunity. It may not be in the way he wanted, but by stepping down now he can do more for democracy in this country than any other leader." That's a legacy worth leaving.