False Dawn in Burma

Compared to its usual benighted state, recent events in Burma appear to offer a glimmer of hope. On his return from a six-day visit, United Nations special envoy Ibrahim Gambari told the Security Council on Nov. 13 that the situation in Burma was "qualitatively different" from how it was during September's brutal crackdown against Buddhist monk–led democracy protests. Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate opposition leader, was allowed to meet with members of her party for the first time in three years, and released a statement saying she looked forward to "a meaningful and time-bound dialogue" with Burma's military rulers. Meanwhile, U.N. human-rights envoy Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro was allowed into the country for the first time since 2003, to check on the treatment of prisoners and meet with top junta officials.

But these conciliatory gestures are likely to be fleeting. Junta leader General Than Shwe refused to meet with Gambari during his visit. The generals say they have no intention of ending Suu Kyi's house arrest; she has been detained for 12 of the past 18 years. And despite assurances to the contrary, the junta continues to jail dissidents like labor-rights activist Su Su Nway and U Gambira, a key leader of the democracy protests.

Burma watchers say the country's future ultimately rests with Than Shwe, and all indications are that the reclusive 74-year-old general won't loosen his grip on power. "I haven't seen anything that shows he is willing to make any concessions on anything substantial,'' said Win Min, a Thailand-based author and Burma expert. The democracy protests, Burma's biggest political uprising in years, have done little to change the status quo.