Out Of The Shadows

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The proposed changes would basically decriminalize migration from Mexico, so it is reasonable to ask whether the Fox-Bush plan would unleash a mighty tide of new immigration. That's what happened during the last amnesty, in 1986. Fox's goal is to make Mexico more like Canada: an economically healthy neighbor whose citizens aren't eager to leave. In the short term, he's shipping excess workers abroad, where they can earn money and send it home. In the long run, he's praying that the cash creates new jobs so people don't have to migrate. Over time, he said last week, "more of Mexico's sons and daughters will be able to fulfill their dreams by staying home."

Remaking immigration law would also fulfill a dream of sorts for Bush. Raised in a border state, he has spoken sympathetically about the dangers illegal migrants face and the economic imperative that drives them. He also knows that while it will be years before they become voters, their friends and relatives are among the 35 million Hispanic Americans who are watching him carefully. "This is a critical opportunity for Bush," said La Raza vice president Cecilia Munoz.

Bush will score points among Hispanics for staring down his party's xenophobic wing. He knows that to grow, his party must change course on immigration. To be re-elected in an increasingly Latino America, he needs to win more of the Hispanic vote than the 35% he collected in 2000. And the party shows signs of changing. Republicans such as Pete Wilson and Pat Buchanan, who staked their political careers on opposition to immigration, no longer have those careers. Senate minority leader Trent Lott balked at the amnesty plan when he first heard about it last Sunday, then dialed back his criticism a day later. But Bush is playing it safe. After the White House floated the proposal last week, it signaled that it might water down the details before September. Meanwhile, because the new amnesty plan is for Mexicans only, Democrats are sure to argue that the same rights and privileges should be extended to Salvadorans, Hondurans and Guatemalans. That could slow the reforms down--and force Americans to decide how special they want this special relationship to be.