Global Warming's Impact Down Under

If it were just about the economy, mate, then Australian Prime Minister John Howard would win his country's upcoming election in a walkover. GDP has grown in each of Howard's 11 years in office, and unemployment is at a 33-year low. Yet barring a last-minute shift before polls open on Nov. 24, Howard will be replaced in Canberra, the nation's capital, by Kevin Rudd, leader of the opposition Labor Party--and climate change will be one of the central reasons.

Though Howard is a longtime global-warming doubter, ordinary Australians are less skeptical. The country has been hit hard by a brutal, multi-year drought that has devastated agriculture and put its biggest cities under water restrictions. Australians have begun to connect water fears to global warming, a bad sign for Howard, whose residence has been picketed by protesters dressed as polar bears. A recent poll of voters in several closely contested seats found that 73% said climate change would have a "strong influence" on the way they vote. "The water shortages have really rocketed climate change to a significant issue in people's minds," says John Connor, chief executive of Australia's Climate Institute, a green lobbying group.

For his part, Rudd has maintained a strong edge on environmental issues. And while Howard has introduced a raft of actions on climate change over the past few months, including a proposed national carbon-trading system, his conversion might be too little, too late. Howard told an Australian TV station on Nov. 9 that "I don't think the world is about to come to an end because of climate change." One hopes not, but his time in office looks like it might.