Australia's New Order

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On the ropes
Howard, meanwhile, was losing his punch. In October, he abruptly announced that he would hold a referendum on amending the Constitution to recognize Aboriginal people. It was his "generation" that had prevented his seeing the need for this sooner, he said. He talked more about climate change and went ahead with preparations for a carbon emissions trading scheme. He said future and plan more often. He started wearing a more stylish tracksuit on his morning walks. In the final week of the campaign he did an old-married-couple interview with Treasurer Costello, explaining how the succession would go. Howard would resign, he said, Costello would stand unopposed, "and everybody will sort of say, Right-o."

It didn't go quite that way. With his seat looking lost to Labor, on Saturday night Howard congratulated Rudd, thanked sobbing supporters and said, "There is no prouder job in the world that anyone can occupy than being P.M. of this country." He said he took "full responsibility" for the Coalition's defeat. On Sunday, Costello made the surprise announcement that he would not stand for party leadership and would quit politics at the end of his term. The double knockout was a reminder that for the conservatives this election is not just a single defeat; it means a coast-to-coast wipeout. Labor now runs not just the federal government but every Australian state and territory. Howard has not only fallen short of his ambition to match Liberal Party icon Sir Robert Menzies' record time as P.M.; he may also be blamed for the shipwreck of Menzies' party.

Rudd said his team would start work at once on implementing Labor's program. He also vowed to break with party tradition and appoint all ministers himself rather than have them selected in factional horse-trading. But while Labor and the trade unions — which poured more than $30 million into his campaign — are now in Rudd's debt for saving them from oblivion, there are doubts that he'll be able to hold off the factional bosses who run the party's federal Caucus. Laborites who think the unions have too much influence in the Caucus may not be consoled by the fact that newly elected M.P.s Greg Combet, former secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, and Bill Shorten, former secretary of the Australian Workers Union, are slated to become ministers.

First on Rudd's list after ratifying Kyoto is to start rolling back the WorkChoices laws. Howard said that if these laws were reversed, no Liberal government would ever again attempt serious industrial-relations reform. But Rudd's program could be slowed by the Senate, which the Coalition will control for the next seven months. After July next year, it appears that Greens and Independents will hold the balance of power. Labor won many of its lower-house seats with Green preferences, and the Greens are much further to the left than Rudd. Greens Senator Kerry Nettle warned before the election that "We will be the hand on the shoulder of Kevin Rudd," but said "we will not block changes that head in the right direction."

On foreign policy, Rudd is expected to stick largely to Howard's way. Australia will remain a "rock solid" friend of the U.S. but reserve the right to act "independently." It will be more deferential to the U.N., and may also be more alert to the sensitivities of China. Rudd has criticized Beijing's human-rights record, but when the Howard government advocated an alliance between Australia, the U.S., Japan and India, he rejected the idea, saying it would make China feel encircled.

As Rudd left the stage in triumph Saturday night, some in the audience wondered whether he will maintain his Howard-like campaign face or become more Labor-like. The party's "true believers" hope, along with political commentator Robert Manne, that "when he gets into government, then we'll begin to see the differences again." Voters who swung to Labor only after Rudd moved toward the center may be praying those differences stay small.