A Vote for Nostalgia

Thaksin Country: a People Power Party rally in northeastern Yasothon province

Agnes Dherbeys / Cosmos for TIME

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A Battle of Wits
Thaksin loyalists see the corruption charges against him as either baseless or simply an inescapable part of doing business in Thailand. They also associate Thaksin with more prosperous times; the junta's shaky grasp of economics — growth has slowed and an ill-conceived currency-control measure in December 2006 led to the biggest one-day loss in the stock market's history — makes it easy to get nostalgic. "The economy was good then," insists taxi driver Narongsak Iamsamorn, 39, who hasn't decided who to vote for this time round. "But now Vietnam is laughing at us. Even a schoolchild can tell you how bad our economy is." His fares have dropped by two-thirds since the coup. "I want Thaksin to come back and make Thailand better again," he says.

If the PPP leads the next government, that homecoming is assured — Samak has promised to pardon Thaksin and his ex-TRT colleagues. How the military will react is unclear. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who led the 2006 coup and has since appointed himself a Deputy Prime Minister, has promised to "accept the people's judgment." After campaigning began, the military announced that it needed nearly $9 billion over 10 years to modernize and buy new weapons, which reads very much like the price of its loyalty to the next government.

Keeping the military in its barracks and out of politics will be one challenge for Thailand's next PM. So will healing the country. Suriyasai Katasila, secretary general of the Campaign for Popular Democracy, has accused the PPP of drawing up an "enemies list," something that the party's deputy secretary general Noppadon Pattama denies. "Let bygones be bygones," he says. "We should not fail the Thai people by arguing and quarreling." Noppadon says his party has adopted "a less confrontational style." If so, nobody has told PPP pit bull Chalerm Yubamrung, who has publicly vowed to "execute" Thaksin's foes. Chalerm, who is campaigning alongside Samak, covets the post of interior minister and, if elected, promises to revive Thaksin's notorious "war on drugs," in which more than 2,600 people were killed.

An election that propels Chalerm into high office looks unlikely to create the conciliatory and competent government that this nation craves. But Thais are nothing if not pragmatic: any elected government is better than the junta, they reason. While it answers one question — Who will be Thailand's 25th Prime Minister? — the election will raise another: When will its 23rd return from self-imposed exile in England? Thaksin's high-profile ownership of Manchester City Football Club, an English Premiership team he bought for $164 million, has helped keep him in the headlines back in soccer-crazy Thailand. While it is illegal for Thaksin to use his wealth to finance PPP activities, his own future is intertwined with the party: he will need its political clout to fight the corruption charges against him and his family. Samak has promised to lift the five-year ban imposed on Thaksin and 110 other former TRT members.

"I don't want to go back as Prime Minister. It's too much already," Thaksin told Reuters on Dec. 7. "My wife will divorce me if I go back to politics." So Thaksin will never be PM again? "Nothing can be ruled out," smiles PPP executive Noppadon, who doubles as Thaksin's spokesman and legal adviser. "He is still young and very energetic." Back on the campaign trail in northeast Thailand, a PPP candidate is urging his audience to send a message to Thaksin. "Please clap loudly so that England can hear you," he says. It's a safe bet that England is already listening.