Strait Talker

Does Separate Equal Free?
Hsieh's thinking resonates among a significant portion of Taiwan's population. The DPP's political base — mainly the longtime Taiwanese residents of the island — completely rejects the idea that Taiwan has any connection to China. The party sees itself as the true champion of this spirit of independence, compared to the KMT, with its old ties to the mainland. The DPP is "much more committed to defending Taiwan's de facto independence and Taiwan's democracy," says Hsiao Bi-khim, the international-affairs director for Hsieh's campaign. "We are not at all willing to compromise that for whatever economic gains that can be achieved with China." The DPP thus paints Ma's more accommodating policies as a route toward effective absorption. "We are worried that Ma's position would be pushing Taiwan into a scenario of de facto unification," says Hsiao. Ma, she believes, doesn't possess "the commitment or the ability" to stop that from happening.

This theme is one that Hsieh is pounding home on the campaign trail. At a late-February rally of 100,000 people at a Taipei stadium, Hsieh painted Ma's position toward China as a sure way of undermining Taiwan's economy and squashing its democratic ideals and hopes for independence. If Ma has his way, "in the end we will give up our sovereignty," Hsieh blasted. "If this happens, we will not have the dignity of being our own masters." (TIME requested an interview with Hsieh but it wasn't granted.)

The KMT used to be equally fearful of its giant neighbor. The party has historically been one of the great bastions of anticommunism and the restrictions on Taiwan's contact with the mainland date primarily from the long period when the KMT was in power. But in recent years, the KMT has gone through a transformation in its outlook. The KMT's turnaround was caused, indirectly, by the DPP. Kicked out of power eight years ago, the KMT had grown out of touch with Taiwan's increasingly vibrant democratic environment. After ruling for so many decades, most of the time through authoritarian regimes, the KMT was corrupt, imperial and slow to adapt to the rising spirit of Taiwanese identity. Since its landmark 2000 electoral loss, however, the KMT has learned to be more democratic and open to public sentiment, and it found a new message, oddly enough, in its historical ties to China. As Lin Chong-pin, president of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies, puts it, the KMT "had no stage in Taiwan but found a stage in China." In 2005, then KMT chairman Lien Chan made a breakthrough visit to Beijing, during which he buried the hatchet with the party's communist foes. The DPP "perceives the mainland as a threat. We should and do," says Ma. However, he adds, "we also perceive the mainland as an opportunity."

Ma's message is so far winning out. Polls show him ahead of Hsieh by double digits. A big reason is Ma himself. The former Taipei mayor and triathlon competitor has become the new face of the new KMT. Born in Hong Kong, Ma arrived in Taiwan as a 1-year-old and, after studying in the U.S., held a long list of posts in KMT governments, including Justice Minister. While campaigning, Ma is often received more like a touring pop star than a politician. "Look at how the ladies react," comments one aide as Ma departs from a rally to greet a line of giggling female office workers waiting to shake his hand.

Ma's biggest asset, however, is the DPP's outgoing Chen. His administration has been so tarnished by corruption scandals that public confidence in the DPP has soured. Even First Lady Wu Shu-chen was indicted on charges of graft and forgery in 2006; she pled not guilty and a verdict has yet to be delivered. Fed-up voters carried the KMT to a landslide victory in legislative elections in January. (Ma was also indicted last year for misappropriating public funds but was cleared of wrongdoing by the courts. An appeal by prosecutors to the Supreme Court is now pending.)

Historical Baggage
The presidential election, though, is far from over. Ma has a potential Achilles heel — the mere fact that he's KMT. Hsieh can count on a full third of the electorate to vote against the KMT under almost any circumstances. Ma has tried to counter by appearing more sensitive to issues of Taiwanese identity. He has spent long stretches in the island's south — DPP territory — where he often bypasses hotels to stay in the homes of ordinary folk. At one rally of labor unionists in Taipei, Ma made sure to lead the crowd in cheers of "Taiwan will win!" in both Mandarin, the language of the mainlanders, and the local Taiwanese dialect. "I eat Taiwan rice, drink Taiwan water," he recently proclaimed. "I will die and be buried here as Taiwanese."

Even if Ma overcomes Hsieh and wins the presidency, he could face serious hurdles in realizing his vision of improved cross-strait relations. Much of his success will depend on the attitude of Beijing. On the surface, the interests of Ma and Hu Jintao appear to be dovetailing. Under Hu, whom Ma compliments as "sophisticated," China has dramatically softened its stance toward Taipei, and Hu these days sounds ready to compromise. In his speech opening the Chinese People's Political Consultative Congress in early March, Hu reiterated his offer to sign a peace treaty. "Status in negotiations would be equal," Hu promised, "and any issue can be discussed."

But there's a catch. Hu insisted that any negotiating party had to accept Beijing's view of "one China," a prerequisite even the KMT might have trouble swallowing. An overtly friendly Taipei will also force Hu to make sensitive decisions on Taiwan policy he has so far been able to avoid, and it is uncertain how far he's willing to go. "Taiwan's leadership will be looking for concessions and will almost certainly be willing to make concessions of its own." says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson College in North Carolina. "That will force Beijing to decide: Where do we draw the line?"

Yet Ma's biggest stumbling block might well be the ambivalent feelings of his own people toward China. Fear of domination by China is still widespread among Taiwan's population and Ma might have to tread carefully or risk a backlash. Even those in favor of closer relations, like Kaohsiung's Wayne Lee, harbor lingering fears of the consequences. "We have to ask ourselves if it is worth making a lot of money for 10 years and trading away our sovereignty," he says.

Ma believes Taiwan can have it all. "We could accomplish a lot of things across the Taiwan Strait without damaging Taiwanese interests, Taiwanese dignity or Taiwanese security," he says. If he's right, the political map of Asia would be changed forever.