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Parsing the Veepstakes

The confidential background checks for John McCain's and Barack Obama's possible running mates are under way, and the oldest rule in politics applies: those in the know probably aren't talking, and those who are talking probably don't know what the candidate really thinks. While neither presumptive nominee is expected to reveal his choice before July, advisers say each is seeking a partner with two main traits: someone qualified to be President and someone the candidate likes.

REPUBLICANS The big surprise has been the bond developing between McCain and onetime rival Mitt Romney. As a competitor, the former Massachusetts governor clearly irritated McCain, but observers say the two now get along famously, with one insider terming them "alpha males" who have moved past their earlier conflicts. One source says that while a group of vice-presidential contenders were enjoying adult beverages recently at McCain's Arizona ranch, the host went out of his way to offer the teetotaling Romney some coffee. Mormons don't drink coffee either, but the gesture was noted.

DEMOCRATS There seems to be little consensus in Obama's camp, but the first hurdle is dealing with Hillary Clinton. While there is no great appetite to have her (and, effectively, her husband) join the team, Obama's advisers recognize the challenge posed by the many Clinton supporters clamoring for her to be picked as his running mate. Some have called the two a potential "dream team," but for Obama, it could become a political nightmare.

CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Iraq Economy Party Solidarity Work Ethic ACTION The war is back at center stage, with Democrats badgering John McCain for erroneously saying the number of U.S. troops has been reduced to pre-surge levels and accusing the Senator of focusing on the conflict to avoid talking about the sagging economy. Republicans, meanwhile, have been taunting Barack Obama for failing to visit Iraq to observe conditions on the ground firsthand since 2006. With an eye on November, Obama is redoubling his efforts to talk to struggling working-class voters with feel-your-pain intensity and increased specificity about how he would help them as President. His man-of-the-people persona has improved lately but is still a work in progress. McCain continues to sound more like the incoherent Bob Dole than the inspirational Ronald Reagan when talking about tax cuts and the rest of his economic platform. No matter what Hillary Clinton says about healing the Democratic Party, it seems clear the mistrust between Obama and her (and their respective supporters) runs deep. Finding common allies to smooth things over, like Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel, is essential. On the Republican side, Scott McClellan's book has infuriated many Republicans but has flustered them as well: If you can't trust a longtime Bushie like Scott not to be a turncoat, whom can you trust? The game of leisure chicken begins: Which candidate will take an extended vacation first? Preconvention R&R is a campaign standard, but every day on the beach is a day away from a battleground state. McCain has been enjoying the luxurious schedule of the unopposed since March, recently taking weekends off. Democrats have taken notice--and are also worried by Obama's obvious fatigue. Does a close election go to the better rested or the one who works harder?

RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

REPUBLICANS         DEMOCRATS   X   TIE X   X X

WINNER OF THE WEEK: Democrats

It was a long, scrappy fight, but Obama at last won his party's nomination. With the prospect of Democratic unity now on his side and an anti-GOP electoral environment, the Republicans begin this phase somewhat on the defensive.

Not all rounds are created equal.

The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.

The Future Is Now

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