The Page

CAMPAIGN SCORECARD [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

ROUND 1 2 3 4 ISSUE Chances of Winning Psychological Warfare Image News Coverage ACTION Key state polls showing John McCain close or ahead--and one widely discussed national poll suggesting he leads among likely voters--busted up insiders' perception that Barack Obama is cruising toward an easy November victory. Now the Republicans hope the public adopts the same revised attitude. Underdogs still need to be seen as plausible winners to draw undecided voters their way. As the political strategist Bill Clinton has pointed out, the key to winning any close contest is psychological dominance. George W. Bush got into McCain's head and rattled his focus in 2000, and Obama is clearly doing the same thing now. McCain can't seem to shake him off and sell his own agenda. Presidential campaigns aren't just about photo ops, but TV images matter in shaping voters' views. From his dramatic overseas trip to his high-profile meetings at home, Obama is aggressively seeking out stronger political environments than McCain is. Part of McCain's problem: his numerous fund-raising requirements limit his schedule. A glut of media attention for Obama and a McCain campaign video of mawkish journalists fawning over the Democrat appeared to galvanize the press corps into reassessing its Obamamania, much as a February Saturday Night Live spoof caused it to make a slight midcourse correction during the Clinton-Obama nomination fight.

RESULTS [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

REPUBLICANS X     X DEMOCRATS   X X   TIE        

WINNER OF THE WEEK: TIE

Obama won a big battle with solid reviews of his overseas trip, but he may have lost the war, as the public appeared to react with less fervor than the media. With fewer than 100 days to go, both sides are gearing up for a tight race.

NOT ALL ROUNDS ARE CREATED EQUAL

The week's winner is based on the relative importance of each fight and by how much the winner takes each round.

WEEK BY WEEK [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]

    JUNE       JULY       AUG.         SEPT.       OCT.         TOTAL WEEKS WON REPUBLICANS   TIE     X TIE X     TIE                           2 DEMOCRATS X   X X       X X                             5

TV Wars. What political ads say about where the campaign is headed

POP QUIZ: THE TERMS PUMP, Love, Safe, New Energy and Dignity are all:

a. Songs by the Jonas Brothers

b. Episode titles of the British dramedy Secret Diary of a Call Girl

c. Names of television commercials produced by the two presidential campaigns

The answer is, of course, c--and these are just a few of the spots John McCain and Barack Obama have aired in their already fierce contest. By fall, presidential political ads will fill TV screens nationwide. What has aired so far gives some clues as to the strategies both camps will probably follow in the coming months.

• Energy policy and national security will be big themes for both sides.

• Obama will continue introducing himself to the country, showcasing his biography and résumé.

• McCain isn't shy about going negative, and he will try to define Obama as a phony who puts personal ambition ahead of the national interest.

• Obama will attack too, probably flooding the airwaves with images of McCain palling around with the terribly unpopular President Bush.

• McCain, once reluctant to advertise his sterling Vietnam-era war record, will vigorously remind voters of his heroic sacrifices.

• Both campaigns will employ what they consider their greatest asset: the charismatic and charming candidates themselves.