The Central Front

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A proposal by Senators Joe Biden, the Democrats' vice-presidential candidate, and Republican Richard Lugar could signal a new start. Their bill calls for a tripling of nonmilitary aid to Pakistan over five years and ties security aid to improved results in dealing with terrorists. Such an approach--which the Senators have called a "genuine sea change"--has widespread support. Randy Scheunemann, the top foreign policy adviser of Republican presidential candidate John McCain, says achieving U.S. objectives in Pakistan will require development as well as military aid. In July, in an interview with nbc, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said not enough U.S. assistance to Pakistan has taken the form of "building schools and building infrastructure in the country."

Sounds great. But who will get the development money that all of Washington now seems keen to send east? Christine Fair, a Pakistan expert with the Rand Corp. in Washington, argues that without a reformer in charge in Islamabad, programs such as Biden-Lugar will be "throwing good money after bad." The problems, she says, are systemic. Improving training for police officers won't help until their wages are boosted to make them less vulnerable to bribes--but that would require reforming police pay, which in turn would call for extensive civil-service reform. "That's the problem with Pakistan," says Fair. "It's like a string in a carpet that you pull, and pretty soon you find yourself unraveling the whole carpet."

The key insight is that no one policy--and no one leader--can save Pakistan. For too long, even as he became increasingly loathed at home, the U.S. relied on Musharraf to deliver its security goals. It can't make the same mistake with Zardari. Now is the time to identify other partners and focus on Pakistan's real needs--not just security but also economic development, education and health care--as its politicians and people seek a way out of the morass into which their nation has sunk.

All that, and patience. Next year marks the 30th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which had the unwitting effect of yoking Pakistan's fortunes to those of the U.S. Do not be surprised if--even with skillful diplomacy, generous aid and appropriate military assistance--it takes another generation for that strange partnership to become one from which both partners believe they benefit.