The Massive Master Plan

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The new cities are the centerpiece of Saudi Arabia's plans to diversify its economy from oil and gas and to boost its manufacturing sector, especially in energy-intensive industries like aluminum and steel. KAEC, for instance, will have a $5 billion smelter built by the United Arab Emirates firm Dubal, one of the world's largest aluminum manufacturers. Another Emirates firm, Emaar, is the city's main developer; there's scarcely any government investment or involvement in the construction. Other companies that have signed up to invest include France's Total, Sweden's Ericsson and U.S. firm Capri Capital, which has announced a $2 billion development deal that will include two luxury hotels as well as office buildings and condominium towers.

The Dubal project is a template for the kind of investment Saudi Arabia wants to attract: it will be 100% foreign-owned and will probably generate several downstream businesses. The ownership is crucial; in the past, the only way foreign companies could operate in the kingdom was through joint ventures and local agents--many of whom brought no skills and little capital to the partnership. With that barrier gone, al-Dabbagh hopes investors will pour in: he expects the new cities to generate more than $100 billion in foreign investment. Saudi businesses may kick in two or three times as much.

Al-Dabbagh is working to remove other barriers as well and crack the Top 10 on competitiveness lists prepared by the World Economic Forum and the World Bank. Since 2005, SAGIA has been pressing the notoriously sclerotic government bureaucracy to become more investor-friendly, simplify procedures and cut back on paperwork. Dahlia Khalifa, an economist on the World Bank team that produces the Doing Business report, credits Saudi Arabia with "consistent reforms over the past three years."

As a result, the kingdom is on the move. On the World Economic Forum's list, it is 27th, up from 35th last year. It sprinted up the World Bank's list, from 67th in 2005 to 16th in 2008, making it the easiest place to do business in the Middle East. In that time, foreign investment in Saudi Arabia has nearly doubled, to $23 billion. "Foreign businesses are looking at us differently," al-Dabbagh boasts. Companies with a long history of working in the kingdom say they've noticed the difference. "The say/do factor has improved significantly," says Nabil Habayeb, GE's CEO for the Middle East and Africa. "When the government tells investors it will do something, it usually gets done."

But Saudi Arabia is still some distance from being an investor's mecca. The kingdom ranks a woeful 137th on the World Bank's list when measured by ability to enforce contracts. For many investors, that will be a red flag. Saudi Arabia has also fared poorly on other lists that investors parse: it has slipped to 80th place on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2008, from 70th in 2005. By that reckoning, Saudi Arabia is one of the most corrupt places in the Middle East.