A Tale of Two Wars: Afghanistan

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All that, and regional politics too. No possible solution in Afghanistan can ignore the dire state of Pakistan. The two countries share a 1,640-mile (2,640 km) border that is impossible to seal. Pakistan's ungoverned tribal areas have become a sanctuary not only for the Taliban militants fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan but also for a new base for al-Qaeda. Islamabad says it wants to help. "Pakistan is now ready to take full responsibility for its side of the border and work cooperatively with the Afghan and NATO forces to make sure that that border area is not a source for attacks in Pakistan, Afghanistan or around the world," says Pakistan's ambassador to Washington, Husain Haqqani. But commanders in Afghanistan privately say they are still skeptical about Pakistan's intentions and dismayed by its evident lack of a coherent strategy to fight the militants.

Can the U.S., NATO and the Kabul government alone sort out Afghanistan? General David Petraeus, now head of U.S. Central Command, does not think so. A key element of Petraeus' strategy is likely to involve exploring the chances of reconciliation with more moderate members of the Taliban. Afghan President Hamid Karzai seems to be moving in the same direction; last month he appealed to Taliban leader Mullah Omar for peace and offered to talk. But negotiations will be impossible unless the Taliban renounces all ties to al-Qaeda, its key financial supporter.

Still, Petraeus has one thing going for him. The bulk of Taliban fighters are disaffected Pashtun tribesmen who have lost their traditional power bases and are disillusioned with Kabul. It is these men Petraeus plans to bring to the government's side, but first they have to be convinced that they have a government worth fighting for. That's hardly an easy task, for the chronic corruption and ineffectiveness of the Karzai administration have become a festering ulcer on the whole Afghan experiment. "Corruption is the greatest source of instability in this country," says Ghani, who, while conceding that military force is essential for maintaining stability, calls for a political surge too. "Two hundred judges in the country will do the work of five divisions," he says. "A thousand bureaucrats committed to integrity will do the work of 10 more."

In his own way, Shah, in the tea shop, agrees. "The Taliban gave us a dictatorship of fear," he says. "Karzai has given us a dictatorship of bribes. What we want now is a dictatorship of law." The next U.S. Administration could do worse than focus on how to help bring that about.